Regardless, it now appears to me that the market is getting ready for a 300 pip (or so) corrective rally. This will be a counter-trend rally which may provide us with a great shorting opportunity once it completes.
40.86 seems to mark the end of the 2nd stage of this corrective pattern. I'm bringing previous long stops up to this now (4 pips below where I entered).
Here's my logic -
Anyone who's been a bear these past few weeks is currently in profit. I suspect a few of these guys will be looking to close out their short positions leading into the report to take the risk off the table of the report potentially being mega bullish. Closing their short positions could create enough buying pressure to rally us up to 43.50 before the report actually comes out.
Hope that helps. Just another way of looking at things ;)