There are a lot of reasons to believe that we going down in the longer term(I'm not talking about what will happen in the next few weeks). Here's my analysis.
Lately, there's little correlation between USOIL and USDCAD which are inversely related in general. This might imply that one of the markets is chaotic. We all know that chaos always exists in the market at the bottom, especially after a drop. And I observed that USDCAD chart.
This implies that the most idealistic future of oil in the course of this year is downwards.