I drink your milkshake! $USO $USOIL

FX:USOIL   原油差价合约(WTI)
413 4
It is the moment we have all been waiting for.

Let me give a quick nod to everything I'm seeing here. Although not viewable on the chart, if you go back to 2014 I see a 5 wave bear pattern and we have since gotten an abc correction off the february low. Following the A wave, we have set an ascending wedge , with momentum divergence building along the supply line. Additionally, we have probed above the value area, and this is an obvious mkt profile fade from an unfair high. The targets are roughly $46, $42, and $38. I will be playing USO 11 Puts for the July expiry, and USO 10.5 Puts for the Aug expiry, and the Sep puts at a 10 strike. Currently I have a manual stop at the recent high on the underlying, and will be covering in the bounce zones at each step of the ladder. This is an aggressive trade, but I like the theta profile on those positions. Ultimately, the trade is short oil , I just thought I would give some insight into my execution. A good amount of trade management will be required.

Look for updates in the future, as I will probably defend with some weekly calls around those prior resistance areas (prospective support areas).
交易开始: Covering first leg at the bounce zone, no defense needed below a 47 handle. I will let you guys know if I buy some weekly calls next week.
交易开始: I didn't get a great opportunity to defend here. I got a small weekly call on momentum around 47.50 that is now closed, but it pretty much shot up vertically, sorry for the lack of haste in the warning. What I did want to share is a development on the 1 hr. I think the short trade is still in play here.

评论: Closing second leg at prior resistance, nicely in the green, no reason to play around with theta here
Sweeeet! I am shorting USO with August Puts (strike $11). Hopefully, this will work! Thank you!

Also, one thing to note, is the relative underperformance of the USO fund versus front month futures due to contango roll effects. So if nothing else, bears are on the right side of the trade assuming this initial move in futures is topping action.
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