FX:USOIL   原油差价合约(WTI)
2265 23 50
As today we broke the trendline of the this correction we have a confirmation that the
Intermediate Cycle low was at 39.14.
The chance that we are going below 39.14$ this year is almost zero.
Keep that in mind when you are following the Short Oil             Gurus.
评论: Anyway I missed calling this bottom 4 months ago.
By 3 weeks and 1$.
Press play.
Just keeps running..... Chart do you think a pull back to 50day is a possible entry before a move back to $51?(could just continue to $51 before pullback the way its trading) just feel if i chase it now we will see that pull back. Thanks again for your analysis and info.
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I don't know how traders can come on your site and openly criticise the way they do. How you put up with it I'm amazed!!
For me, the work and help you give is outstanding and much more than most others...I feel traders are always talking different time lines...you say you don't see downing past 39.14, the very next person says 33 or something without any constructive reasoning! Another says it gunna be a great short at 52... Well you have said its going in that direction for days and got some of your smart followers on board! I sold on the last wave and got back on this one and been making MONEY....it maybe a good short at 52 but I'm sure if it is you will call it....anyway thanks APRi for your great dedication to your followers....you can only give your best and you do that in spades cheers Ron NZ
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Thanks man, you're a stud!
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I wouldnt rush in to call the bottom of oil, just yet. If you look at the fundamentals of the market, there is absolutely no question that the market is over supplied. The current rally has been sparked by comments that OPEC will freeze output. Really? Does anyone think that they will freeze output? Saudi and Iran cannot sit on a table without fighting and they will agree to freeze output? The notion itself is ridiculous. For each member thinking of freezing output, there are 2 who are going to be increasing their outputs - including Saudi! And this is just the OPEC. Non-OPEC members are going to add about 350k barrels per day of oil in the coming year!
Check out official released figures of all that i have said. Even US rigcounts have started going up. Saudi's output is at the highest its ever been. Iran is ramping up production to pre-sanction levels and wants to go higher by atleast 800k-1M barrels per day. Per Day!! Russia is pumping at records...Iraq is ramping up production like hell. The list goes on and on.
And now the demand side. Check API and IEA figures of crude stocks in the US. You guessed right. Again at records. It's the highest its ever been - and this during the peak demand months of summer when all Americans are supposed to be driving around the country thanks to $2 gas.
The surge in oil prices from Jan to June of this year was driven thanks to the Chinese teapots, who increased demand trying to take advantage of low oil prices. Check whats happening to them now. Imports of crude by teapot refiners in china has dropped significantly, as they are flush with products that the world is not buying. Chinese demand is falling off a cliff.
If oil does breach the $52 level, it would be a fantastic short. The world is flush with oil and there is no storage place left for all the oil being pumped out of the ground. Wall Street and OPEC needs to make money off oil, and hence they plant reports that suggest output freezes, etc which makes the oil traders loads of money. Lets see what happens 6 months from now...I would rather stay on the sidelines, than be long this trade
+2 回复
you did not have to wait this +17% bounce for two weeks to make such an obvious conclusion. Lots of people incl. myself wrote about it well before (not after) it happened.
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You are very smart.
We bought at the exact bottom at real time.

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AlbCM chartwatchers
excellent call then. Well done. Though it does not say anything about levels and time of the highs.
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I'm good in timing, but cannot predict where is a vehicle topping.
For that you need a crystal ball or have to be Nostradamus.
+2 回复
AlbCM chartwatchers
nobody is and that's not the point. The point is to learn from each other, so if you had put levels and time, it would have been beneficial to everybody. Just a suggestion.
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I entered in oil longs this February here:
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