Follow up from my last publication on this phenomenon from 8 months ago.
When VIX falls 75% after a spike-run up of at least 5 points, it sets a foundation of buying support that often holds when revisited or retested.
This is a unique and powerful observation.
The last foundation level of support in the SPY is 209-204-199. That covers a wide range, but it is just under the current level of 213.28.
Search for the other charts I have posted here on this phenomenon and keep it in mind.
Tim
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The S&P didn't drop down to the ideal support level, which can mean two things: 1. That the market has far MORE buying power than normal. 2. The market will drop faster and further once the current buying wave is complete. In past instances when we don't see a re-test of support, that it means the market is in a weaker condition where weaker-handed investors are holding stocks and end up selling them in severe price weakness back to the strong hands. Keep posted and ask questions to see what the current market is telling us. Join us in the Key Hidden Levels chat room each day.
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It's been over a year since I last updated this chart, but I hope you have been watching for more signals in this reliable indicator:
The last two dates for support at the 75% VIX Spike Retracements are August 30th and November 21st. Plot the range of that day as important support and include a box of support from the lowest low prior to this date listed and the high of the date also.
Join Me in the Key Hidden Levels Chat Room to discuss further.
Cheers.
Tim 12/3/2017 9:01PM EST
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3 VIX spikes have occured so far this year, creating new support levels for the market to cushion future corrections to current prices.
The old saying: When VIX is HIGH, it is USUALLY TIME TO "BUY". When VIX is LOW, is is usually time to "go". ("go" is "to get out")
Here's the latest chart for you.
Tim 4/17/2018 9:00AM EST
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laksili1
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fantastic tim you are genius,i'm silently followed you and iven thanks for both
timwest
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Thanks @laksili1, Join us in the "Key Hidden Levels Chat Room" for more insights.
tlcgharvest
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You are a genius. Thanks Tim for this insight. I've been using your 75%-VIX indicator for the last 18 months, quite spot on.
A-shot
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Regarding your last update about 2 possible outcomes. But how would one find out which one of the 2 is it?
Victor.Y.F
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Thank you Tim! All conditions meet the collapsing of global indexes soon. Gold is leading the way. FRB now has their delaying rates hike consequences.
timwest
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"All conditions meet"... Not exactly, at least I don't see it your way. I certainly am not in that camp. What are your major bearish factors Victor? Have you seen my other posts where I forecast the year 2016 (and 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012)?? I lay out the major bullish and bearish factors.
Victor.Y.F
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We have two major risks now: renminbi the second strike and the US election result. Short time volatiles is expected. I'm bearish the stocks in a short time. Gold will lead the way.
A-shot
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If i am reading it right, you expect VXX to go up to 24, and then to go down 75% of that run?
A-shot
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Or in other words, it has already done a 5 move, so where do you think/know will be the turning point (or at what time would you get in)? only at a 75% retracement?
timwest
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I put the VIX to repeat the previous VIX massive surges for reference. If VIX retraces by 75%, then we will have a brand new, higher support level for the market. Time will tell.