GOLD - Friday the 13th

FX:XAUUSD   黄金/美元
9067 101
"It's never been a free market and will never be." - Bandarsq TradingView
So true...
Powers let the Head and shoulders (or Trendreversing cup and handle ) pattern to evolve in gold and waited for the breakdown.
When the the breakdown was completed on the hourly chart price was reversed immediately and the cup & handle formed into a flag. We noticed the trick and I warned the traders to wait for a confirmation after the breakdown before stopping out the long position.

That is the main reason is better to use a "mental stop" in gold . You set a level where you decide to stop your position if price goes to the opposite direction. But reaching the stop level is not enough. Price has to close below that level and needs to have a follow through in the following hour(s). Friday we took out the previous low and price closed below it but the next hourly candle didn't give us the follow through so holding the longs was the good decision.

A lot of traders entered a short position as the pattern broke down. These short traders are trapped now in the bear trap below the H&S pattern.
Before the close we tagged the upper trendline of the flag.

We rallied for 18 days and we reached 1200$. It's a good level to turn down.
But gold usually never turns when most of the traders think it's time to drop. Gold usually prints 2-3 more green days before starting to fall : stopping out all the early longs and convince the late bulls this rally will last forever and we are going to the moon.

So I think these 2-3 days are coming at the beginning of next week before we print the cycle top.
These green days are the biggest gold rallies. If we break out of the flag next week Monday we can have the cycle top.

... and don't forget USA is closed on Monday. When USA is closed Asia likes to break out gold's price and run the stops of the USA traders during the holiday.These pops can be 50-60$ pops in 2 days.
I'm waiting for this scenario...
评论: Looks a flag breakout to me...
评论: USA shorts might be destroyed today as it is holiday there...
评论: Between 1220-25 I suggest to take profit on some of the position.
Yes we can rally up to 1240-45 easily but we are getting late in the cycle with very nice profits so time to book some.
评论: The tag of the blue trendline is a good spot to decrease the position size.
评论: "Trump’s comments on the dollar over the weekend sent the currency sharply lower. He told The Wall Street Journal in an interview that published Friday the U.S. currency was “too strong” because China was keeping its own yuan weaker. “Our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is too strong, and it’s killing us,” the president-elect said in the interview."
评论: I told you a few weeks ago Trump will fight hard against the strong dollar. The US export lobby was pushing him before and after the elections to make steps for the weaker dollar or the US companies will sell their products in the USA only.
That would be an economic suicide.
评论: Now the ECB will try to weaken the Euro again but they will fight against the N+1 headed dragon.If the US and Trump wants weak dollar they will have weak dollar. Even if they have to fire Yellen.
评论: As the daily RSI is turning down after 21 days of rally I'm out of my longs today at 1214$.
评论: Waiting for a new long entry.
评论: One can always trust in Yellen calling a cycle top.
Good that we got out. RSI saved us getting caught.
评论: Hourly bear flag just broke down on good volume.
Getting closer to our entry point.
Early next week I will be long again.
评论: It seems to me that the New presidental uncertainty is not letting gold to have a pullback....
It's getting risky that we will break up again...
评论: I say we might see 1245-50 this week...
it will go to 1.210 - 1.211 maximum and we still have flat wave to touch 1.196 - 1.195 its the point i will buy from
Thoughts on the Pullback, new targets? $DXY is turning down again and gold is hovering around $1205.
1250, Now we're cooking. I hope this works. Because I mortgaged the house and loaded the truck with UGLD. If it all works, I will be moving to Beverly...
Hills that is. Swimmin pools, movie stars. :)
@MrRick, LOL. Walking deads also?
Thank you for your continued analysis and updates. My techical analysis implies three months of upside at minimum and possibly 5 months or until June. During this period we will see USDJPY give up all of its recent gains and possibly falling to .89.

After this the US $ will begin to recover and rally and there will be a retrace mentioned of gold back to recent lows so be wary of the coming highs and get out in good order.
Much appreciated your hard work and ideas!Thanks
What is your target for long again?
@AshYo, 1250
ArtFly chartwatchers

After 1250 short or you will wait to correct and futher long???
@ArtFly, Let's get on this plane before we find out where we will land.
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