Long term bullish on Gold

FX:XAUUSD   黄金/美元
155 0
There are a lots of noise about Gold . Simply, it breaks the Bearish Channel . Many are playing the game of Major Trend of Reversal.

1. The Gold rises from 2008 to 2011 top, because it was fueled by MBS bond collapses. In fact, MBS collapse is a tiny portion of the entire Bond market and derivatives.

2. 2011 is the top of Gold . From then on, Gold was in a bearish trend .

3. The bearish trend was officially broken this July 2017 and rallied to Sept top. We are heading for probably 1/2 year of Trading Range from 1376 to 1226 for consolidation and accumulation phase.

4. Any Bear shorting on Gold is playing for Trading Range from 1376 - 1226.

5. The Bulls are not buying at this moment, because the Algo are waiting for (Retest the bearish trend/Ceiling test) at 1226 range. It is no point for bulls to buy, when you can buy it at the Bullish Channel at 1230 - 1250 Dollar cost average down

6. COT analysis- The Commercial are heavily short on Gold . The COT shows no sign of the removal. Keep in mind that the Comex Futures are overhedged. Simply in English terms, Commercial are shorting for 2 years of Gold consumption. That is assume no one is buying Gold in the US Denominated asset for 2 years. The Comex warehouse just couldn't honor that much of the supply. This is a powder keg, ready to explode in the upside.

7. According to Price Action and COT analysis, I am looking for explosion in Gold , based upon the Short Squeeze (according to the COT report)

评论: According to COT analysis, the Commercial didn't remove their hedge on Gold -210,648 Future contracts. It is almost equal to Speculator (Hedge fund) future contracts. That is why the Price action reflection shows a tight trading range. Until, Commercial removes their hedge. Or Speculator break out into higher high. The Price action remains tight trading range.
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