Gold has now confirmed the scenario discussed in my previous analysis. After failing to break above the major resistance near 4200, XAUUSD has reversed sharply and is now trading below 4050. What’s particularly noteworthy is that even with renewed geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation, gold has struggled to attract sustained safe-haven demand. When bullish news fails to lift price, it often suggests that the market is becoming increasingly dominated by technical selling and macro expectations rather than headlines.
From a technical perspective, the rejection around 4200 formed a clear lower high, while the break below 4050 signals that short-term market structure has shifted back in favor of sellers. Price has also slipped back below the previous breakout zone, turning former support into new resistance. Momentum indicators continue to weaken, with RSI rolling over from bullish territory while MACD is extending its bearish crossover, suggesting that upside momentum is fading. Unless buyers can quickly reclaim 4050, rallies are more likely to be treated as selling opportunities than the start of a fresh uptrend.
For the coming sessions, 4050–4070 becomes the first resistance zone to monitor. A rejection from this area could expose 4000 as the next psychological support, with 3960 acting as the next major demand zone. On the other hand, if bulls regain 4050 and reclaim 4100, sentiment could improve enough for another attempt toward 4150–4200. Until then, the short-term structure continues to favor the bears.
Another key event traders should watch is the FOMC Minutes, which will be released later tonight. The minutes could provide more insight into how divided policymakers are over the timing of future rate cuts. If the discussion reveals that officials remain concerned about persistent inflation and are in no hurry to ease policy, Treasury yields and the US dollar could strengthen further, creating additional pressure on gold. Conversely, any unexpectedly dovish language could trigger a short-term relief rally.
At the same time, recent comments associated with Kevin Warsh have also attracted market attention. Although he is not currently a Federal Reserve voting member, his views continue to carry weight because he is widely regarded as one of the more hawkish voices in U.S. monetary policy circles and is often mentioned in discussions about future Fed leadership. His repeated emphasis on restoring price stability before considering easier policy reinforces the market’s cautious expectations for aggressive rate cuts. While his remarks do not directly determine Fed policy, they contribute to the broader narrative supporting a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, which remains a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.
The biggest lesson from this move is simple: when bullish news fails to produce bullish price action, it often signals underlying weakness. Gold has already fallen nearly 150 points from the recent 4,200 high, and with the FOMC Minutes acting as the next major catalyst, today’s technical levels may determine whether this correction extends toward 4000 or whether buyers can finally regain control.
From a technical perspective, the rejection around 4200 formed a clear lower high, while the break below 4050 signals that short-term market structure has shifted back in favor of sellers. Price has also slipped back below the previous breakout zone, turning former support into new resistance. Momentum indicators continue to weaken, with RSI rolling over from bullish territory while MACD is extending its bearish crossover, suggesting that upside momentum is fading. Unless buyers can quickly reclaim 4050, rallies are more likely to be treated as selling opportunities than the start of a fresh uptrend.
For the coming sessions, 4050–4070 becomes the first resistance zone to monitor. A rejection from this area could expose 4000 as the next psychological support, with 3960 acting as the next major demand zone. On the other hand, if bulls regain 4050 and reclaim 4100, sentiment could improve enough for another attempt toward 4150–4200. Until then, the short-term structure continues to favor the bears.
Another key event traders should watch is the FOMC Minutes, which will be released later tonight. The minutes could provide more insight into how divided policymakers are over the timing of future rate cuts. If the discussion reveals that officials remain concerned about persistent inflation and are in no hurry to ease policy, Treasury yields and the US dollar could strengthen further, creating additional pressure on gold. Conversely, any unexpectedly dovish language could trigger a short-term relief rally.
At the same time, recent comments associated with Kevin Warsh have also attracted market attention. Although he is not currently a Federal Reserve voting member, his views continue to carry weight because he is widely regarded as one of the more hawkish voices in U.S. monetary policy circles and is often mentioned in discussions about future Fed leadership. His repeated emphasis on restoring price stability before considering easier policy reinforces the market’s cautious expectations for aggressive rate cuts. While his remarks do not directly determine Fed policy, they contribute to the broader narrative supporting a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, which remains a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.
The biggest lesson from this move is simple: when bullish news fails to produce bullish price action, it often signals underlying weakness. Gold has already fallen nearly 150 points from the recent 4,200 high, and with the FOMC Minutes acting as the next major catalyst, today’s technical levels may determine whether this correction extends toward 4000 or whether buyers can finally regain control.
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