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Will gold break 1200???

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   黄金/美元
Many people out there are hopeful that gold             will not brake 1200. However there are just as many people hoping it will break. It all depends on witch side of the coin your on . I personally would like a bounce/rally to 1235 ( I live in hope). However the genrall consensus is gold             is to go lower. Some suggest that should gold             brake 1200 it want go much lower then 1198. I disagree . Braking such a massive support level , in mind could lead to a drop of around $20-$30 till it finds its true bottom around 1190-1180. When comparing Dec 016-Jan 017 we see a very similar pattern has formed to our current chart.

I see a bounce to 1220 area before holding till the 12th of July . There after we will see a slue of data and speeches. From Yellen to testify to congress as well as the reserve bank panel and advanced             retail sales data.
Retail data is forecast to be up from -0.3% to 0.2%. Should the data be lower then expected we could see some small gains for gold             possible to 1225 .Retail data is very important in my view, as we get see what your average person is doing. Its all very well for financial markets to be doing well and employment data to be good, if thats not reflect in how and what people are spending and spending on. A lower retail growth for June, would suggest at ground level the economy is still at the very early stages of recovery . We also have Housing data coming out as well as Jobless claims data coming out. Should this data be stronger then expect or be more or less on point a drop to 1201 is probable.

So in short, it maybe another volatile few weeks for gold             . Do's this mean gold             will drop ? Not necessarily. It is not expected that the up coming data will show significant improvements or gains . So rather then a drop I see stagnant /sideways trading. As trades wait. For gold             to break 1221 to rally up would require in my view some large unforced event, war or very bad data.
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