I see a bounce to 1220 area before holding till the 12th of July . There after we will see a slue of data and speeches. From Yellen to testify to congress as well as the reserve bank panel and advanced retail sales data.
Retail data is forecast to be up from -0.3% to 0.2%. Should the data be lower then expected we could see some small gains for gold possible to 1225 .Retail data is very important in my view, as we get see what your average person is doing. Its all very well for financial markets to be doing well and employment data to be good, if thats not reflect in how and what people are spending and spending on. A lower retail growth for June, would suggest at ground level the economy is still at the very early stages of recovery . We also have Housing data coming out as well as Jobless claims data coming out. Should this data be stronger then expect or be more or less on point a drop to 1201 is probable.
So in short, it maybe another volatile few weeks for gold . Do's this mean gold will drop ? Not necessarily. It is not expected that the up coming data will show significant improvements or gains . So rather then a drop I see stagnant /sideways trading. As trades wait. For gold to break 1221 to rally up would require in my view some large unforced event, war or very bad data.