XAUUSD Gold Approaching Critical Turning Point
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Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Subwaves and Final Leg
In this chart, the Elliott Wave structure appears to be at the latter stages of a complex Wave 5. The following points summarize the current wave count and structure:
Wave V (5th Wave Completion):
The market is nearing the completion of Wave V in the higher-degree structure, which consists of five smaller waves (denoted as 1 through 5).
The upper resistance zones (around 2,750 - 2,779) signal the end of the impulsive move and the onset of a potential correction.
Wave (5) is subdivided into minor sub-waves, with the final minor sub-wave likely pushing the price slightly higher before reversing.
Corrective ABC Pattern Expected:
Post Wave V, a corrective ABC pattern is anticipated. The chart already shows the ABC structure, and the final leg C could soon begin.
The corrective structure might target levels near 2,605 - 2,653, as indicated by the Fibonacci retracement levels (50% at 2,653.535 and 61.8% at 2,649.894).
Price Targets and Fibonacci Levels:
The Fibonacci levels between 2,605 and 2,653 act as significant retracement zones, providing a roadmap for potential price pullbacks once the 5th wave completes.
A price correction to these levels could confirm the start of the ABC correction phase.
Resistance Levels to Watch:
Key resistance remains around 2,750.091 and 2,779, indicating a potential topping zone for the final wave push. If the market fails to push past these levels, it would reinforce the corrective outlook.
Wyckoff Analysis: Distribution and Signs of Weakness
In conjunction with Elliott Wave, the Wyckoff Method emphasizes market psychology and supply/demand dynamics. The following insights are derived from Wyckoff's perspective:
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B:
The chart identifies a potential Upthrust (UT) in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution. This marks the final push higher before supply begins to exceed demand, typically leading to a price reversal.
The distribution phase is a period when large market participants offload their positions, leading to increased selling pressure as the market tops out.
Break of Structure (BOS) and Signs of Weakness (SOW):
Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) indicate a waning bullish momentum, as prices begin to struggle to maintain higher highs.
The Sign of Weakness (SOW) noted on the chart further emphasizes the potential for a bearish reversal, as this is an early signal that supply is overcoming demand.
This supports the Elliott Wave view that a correction is imminent.
Creek and Testing:
The Wyckoff Creek represents a major price trend, and failure to hold above it could result in a return to lower levels, potentially retesting the breakout levels around 2,650.
The chart’s suggestion of a Secondary Test (ST) in the distribution phase indicates the market is testing previous highs to assess the strength of the resistance.
Short-Term and Medium-Term Outlook
Final Upward Push:
There may still be a minor upward push as Wave V completes. Expect price action to challenge the 2,750-2,779 resistance zone before reversing.
Corrective Phase Likely:
A correction is likely to unfold over the next 2 weeks, targeting the 2,605-2,653 zone. This aligns with both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff’s distribution phase indicators.
The corrective move could evolve into a larger ABC correction over the coming weeks.
Key Support Levels:
Should the market correct, the 2,653.535 (50% retracement) and 2,649.894 (61.8% retracement) levels will serve as the first significant support areas.
Deeper retracements could target 2,605.868 or even lower levels in case of strong selling pressure, with the 2,421.241 level acting as a major historical support.
Conclusion:
Both Elliott Wave Theory and the Wyckoff Method align to suggest that the current bullish momentum is losing steam. Traders should watch for a potential top around 2,750 - 2,779, followed by a corrective phase that may take the market back to the 2,600-2,650 area. Short-term opportunities may still exist for upside movement, but the medium-term outlook suggests downside risk as the market enters a correction.
In this chart, the Elliott Wave structure appears to be at the latter stages of a complex Wave 5. The following points summarize the current wave count and structure:
Wave V (5th Wave Completion):
The market is nearing the completion of Wave V in the higher-degree structure, which consists of five smaller waves (denoted as 1 through 5).
The upper resistance zones (around 2,750 - 2,779) signal the end of the impulsive move and the onset of a potential correction.
Wave (5) is subdivided into minor sub-waves, with the final minor sub-wave likely pushing the price slightly higher before reversing.
Corrective ABC Pattern Expected:
Post Wave V, a corrective ABC pattern is anticipated. The chart already shows the ABC structure, and the final leg C could soon begin.
The corrective structure might target levels near 2,605 - 2,653, as indicated by the Fibonacci retracement levels (50% at 2,653.535 and 61.8% at 2,649.894).
Price Targets and Fibonacci Levels:
The Fibonacci levels between 2,605 and 2,653 act as significant retracement zones, providing a roadmap for potential price pullbacks once the 5th wave completes.
A price correction to these levels could confirm the start of the ABC correction phase.
Resistance Levels to Watch:
Key resistance remains around 2,750.091 and 2,779, indicating a potential topping zone for the final wave push. If the market fails to push past these levels, it would reinforce the corrective outlook.
Wyckoff Analysis: Distribution and Signs of Weakness
In conjunction with Elliott Wave, the Wyckoff Method emphasizes market psychology and supply/demand dynamics. The following insights are derived from Wyckoff's perspective:
Upthrust (UT) in Phase B:
The chart identifies a potential Upthrust (UT) in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution. This marks the final push higher before supply begins to exceed demand, typically leading to a price reversal.
The distribution phase is a period when large market participants offload their positions, leading to increased selling pressure as the market tops out.
Break of Structure (BOS) and Signs of Weakness (SOW):
Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) indicate a waning bullish momentum, as prices begin to struggle to maintain higher highs.
The Sign of Weakness (SOW) noted on the chart further emphasizes the potential for a bearish reversal, as this is an early signal that supply is overcoming demand.
This supports the Elliott Wave view that a correction is imminent.
Creek and Testing:
The Wyckoff Creek represents a major price trend, and failure to hold above it could result in a return to lower levels, potentially retesting the breakout levels around 2,650.
The chart’s suggestion of a Secondary Test (ST) in the distribution phase indicates the market is testing previous highs to assess the strength of the resistance.
Short-Term and Medium-Term Outlook
Final Upward Push:
There may still be a minor upward push as Wave V completes. Expect price action to challenge the 2,750-2,779 resistance zone before reversing.
Corrective Phase Likely:
A correction is likely to unfold over the next 2 weeks, targeting the 2,605-2,653 zone. This aligns with both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff’s distribution phase indicators.
The corrective move could evolve into a larger ABC correction over the coming weeks.
Key Support Levels:
Should the market correct, the 2,653.535 (50% retracement) and 2,649.894 (61.8% retracement) levels will serve as the first significant support areas.
Deeper retracements could target 2,605.868 or even lower levels in case of strong selling pressure, with the 2,421.241 level acting as a major historical support.
Conclusion:
Both Elliott Wave Theory and the Wyckoff Method align to suggest that the current bullish momentum is losing steam. Traders should watch for a potential top around 2,750 - 2,779, followed by a corrective phase that may take the market back to the 2,600-2,650 area. Short-term opportunities may still exist for upside movement, but the medium-term outlook suggests downside risk as the market enters a correction.
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