Not much has changed since our gold correction commentary post on the 10th except that gold had spike up to $1263 on Thursday after global equities weakness and continued fears about European banks.
The fib retracements have stayed pretty much the same except now moving up a bit. For the most part, our analysis has not changed as we still anticipate a move lower from the seasonal February high into a seasonal low (March-April) of between $1130-$1150.
Of course gold could stay strong and correct only down to its 38.2% retracement level but if history is any guide, we should see a correction of at least 50 to 61.8%. When gold fired off it previous long-term buy signal on January 20th, 2009, gold immediately shot up to $1007 and by April it came all the way back down to $864.
In conjunction, gold came back down to its 37EMA which is ideal for establishing long-term positions once if prices have already moved much higher. While we will get our anticipated long-term buy signal on this coming Monday’s open, we would certainly not want to establish any leveraged positions this far away from the 8/37EMAs.
Prudence suggests to wait until prices back down to the seasonal low timeframe and anticipated price zone and we should start entering long positions in the late-March / early-April timeframe.
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I think Gold should atleast touch 1190 for wave 4 in daily chart. If breaks 1180 goes for correction upto 50% correction then low chance of extreme highs. As 5wave yet left in current rally. If it trade above 1180 high chance of 1400 in coming months. Else we back to previous level. Hope your analysis below 1180 comes true.I also wanted that.