Gold is jammed between very significant support and resistance levels right now. With current geopolitical events unfolding it is anybodys guess as to which direction it will take but a breakout from this box should see a sizeable move in either direction. My opinion on this market is neutral with a slightly bullish bias.
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We had a fake breakout bear trap to the downside and a recovery on high volume back inside the neutral zone. GDX and the miners are holding strong indicating bullish support. H1 support at 1277.60 held well. Gold is the stongest of the metals sector right now. The D 23% fib is proving to be strong resistance as it should but i believe it will be broken to the upside and any long term strategy should use this as a good time to accumulate mining shares. Silver is way more volatile so most of the silver signals should be ignored in favor of the gold signals at this time. We are still in no man's land and 1296 must be taken out to confirm resumption of the uptrend.
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Many are calling for a major decline here because we hit major upside resistance. This in my opinion is the downfall of following strictly TA without taking into account momentum and intermarket analysis as well as some fundamental. I want to point out in this post the fact that we have broken the longterm downtrendline from the top in 2011. It doesnt matter if we broke it by 10 cents or 10 dollars, ... the fact is we broke it although we are now below it. This in essence means the multi year trend has just accelerated. Usually when this happens there is a substantial pullback that proves to be the best buying opportunity of the trend. Whether gold breaks out from here or goes into a larger correction remains to be seen but as i see it the trend has now officially changed to up and i will be buying weakness at every opportunity.
