When everybody was 100% sure that we are going to the Moon with gold and by the Brexit 1400$ will be gold's price today gold printed a key reversal candlestick. We turned down exactly from the The decline was 35$.
If the fundamental traders would have been right that gold is rising because of the Brexit why did we stop today? And we not just stopped but printed a strong reversal on heavy volume...
Gold was rising because of 2 reason: 1. There is a possibility that we printed an Intermediate cycle low on the 30th May. If that was the ICL I have to say it was a shallow "nothing" ICL. It's hard to imagine that gold - the most tricky commodity - is finishing the initial phase of its bull market this simple way. But it's not impossible. We have to be ready for this scenario. 2. Gold is not ready with the ICL and the banks have a decline plan for gold. For a real tough decline they will need all the retail traders and other traders to stop out in the panic selling. It's better to build a bulltrap for an ultimate decline. Let's se what we have: - We have a bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart after this candle the candlestick pattern traders are short. - The swing traders will be short as soon as price breaks yesterday's low. This mission could be easily completed. - Sentiment traders: The short term sentiment is very bullish. They are in. - Chart pattern traders: for this we need to print a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. If we have a pop up to 1285 in the following 4-5 hours the H&S is ready. - Indicator traders: RSi left overbought, SlowStoch crossed and heading down, MACD wants to crossover. So everything is ready. And finally we need a bulltrap at the top. We don't just have a bulltrap we have a bulltrap in the bulltrap. That's the recipe of a steep decline.
So we are heading down at least till the brexit. In the meanwhile the gold will be coupled with the dollar again. Most of the traders will not understand what's happening. They will stay hoping in the bulltrap .
As I saw today's decline I'm quite sure that at least we will tag the red or the blue trendline around 1235-1240. And there will come the question is the ICL in or not? Are we making a lower low with a panic selling or not? Time will tell...
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H&S forming
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Bulltrap in bulltrap
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We might test back the purple trendline . If someone would like to enter a short 1284-1290 is a good place.
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10 EMA couldn't catch the price. It wants the 20 EMA or the trendline.
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The more time we spend in the yellow area the bigger the chance that it's a flag which breaks down. We might spend here the whole day after yesterday's monster move as a consolidation.
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Try to enter into the short position at the top of the flag when you are scared and not emotionally at the bottom of the flag (" it's breaking down i will left behind")...
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If it's starting this is the time. We tagged the 10 EMA on the 4hrs chart and almost tested back the trendline.
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Trendline tested back.
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Let's see if the trendine test back was enough for them or not.
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Ok so who wants to sell now this is the time
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Stop goes above this candle: 1296.5
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We have no business above the trendline
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Nightstar
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I know some of you are dying to make a buck on the short side but if the Dollar is rolling over then what's to stop Gold?? Gold/Miners could easily whipsaw or trade sideways for as long as it needs to in order to reset Sentiment and then.. onwards and upwards! Remember folks, no matter what.. This is a Bullish trend, meaning the 'surprises' are usually to the upside, not the other way around. Ps: I'm not trying to dampen the mood, just giving the Bears food for thought :)
forged
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Awesome post. Gold will go above 1315 launch pad (resistance will become support) next week when dollar fall.
zaius3333
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I don't see anything stopping gold in the intermediate term. It might be oversold now but the bull will correct any type of entry mistake.
MarioLeb
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i liked ur analysis , i stopped my long at 1240 and since i ve been shorting. it was a mistake . burned a gd amount of money. anyway no one forced me to follow ur signals. so good luck to u next time. but everything about Gold is bullish , even if its manipulated
pbartashevich
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Be careful with long position though. Gold retraced today exactly 50% on increasing volume and dropped back on big volume. Then is climbed to $1300 on constantly reducing volume. On daily chart that retracement is shown on lighter volume. Silver just retraced 50% on lighter volume. Silver retraced exactly 50% on half of the volume. GDX retraced a third of yesterday's move on light volume and painted a shooting star last hour on big volume. on hourly GDX chart it looks like completed zig-zag correction. Bullish sentiment is greatly reduced.
isaac312
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Arpi, I hope you could be the legendary trader, but you are too focus on technicals.... Think about fundamentals and news, medias, other central banks. How world is reacting. What does it mean... If breixt happen, chez other cou try want to fo out too. Without being macro economist, you will not be the legendary trader we all trading view hope for... Cheer up and acept and improve to be next level.... Too much technicals
USSRandolph
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I am surprised you would say such a thing! But then maybe you know more than you're letting on
Annette
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Post your chart idea for juin so we will see who has the better idea ;)
kizly
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Thks once again, earned nice % with DUST and JDST, now hedging and my be later another round