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GOLD - Shadow of the FED

OANDA:XAUUSD   黄金/美元
6352 71 91
Just a short summary what happened last week and what I'm waiting before the FOMC...
In the smaller time frame we had a triangle pattern which broke out. The target price counted from the pattern was at 1286$.
The price was not just completed but we break above the target price... and had built a bear trap above the blue trendline .


On the other hand we had a rally (blue trendline ), a consolidation and one more rally to the top. The first and the second rally's trend was the same length. (This formation many times called a T1 pattern)

The apex is a very strong level now(1259,3). I think at the beginning of this week price will not break below the apex. We will test back the apex level and price will be bouncing again. That will give the opportunity for a right shoulder as we are building a H&S pattern.
As soon as we break 1259 the decline accelerates.

评论: This could be a valid head and shoulders pattern with a nice prior trend .
评论: A perfect back test of the apex today.
评论: So I think the bounce will start now.
I'm not going to play it though I think we can't break 1259 before the FED meeting.
Who is day trading can close now and try to sell again tomorrow or on Thursday.
I'm just holding the shorts. And might add a few more position at 1270-75.
评论: Right shoulder is ready.
Let's go and fall.
评论: This idea is still valid. I will update after the FOMC.
I think the FED will surprise the markets and strengthen the dollar. Maybe not with the rate hike decision but later at the press conference.
评论: Today is a unique possibility for them to hike not just 0.25 but 0.5
评论: THe dollar is super weak and the markets are going out of the roof.
评论: No comment.
See and believe.
评论: See you at 1170.
you are absolutely right... i tried some shorts and longs, all losing money,,, just like gold market is unpredictable, you are just great to catch the trends
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This is my speculation from End of April.It work som but possible that will hit about 1185$ before rally.

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We have double RSI divergence on the 4hrs, and just compare today's candle with the one from 3rd of May after FED. The price is also in the channel as of now.
Nothing is decided yet. That's my take.
+1 回复
trade2win19 Singapore22
@Singapore22, I agree with you somewhat. We will need to see some follow through in the next session and stay below 1260 for anything to start up, imo.
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Congrats Arpi, that's really nice fondamental analysis. My strategy gave me a short also, but miles away from your view.
1170 seems a bit extreme, but let's see how market reacts until end of week.
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hi there! been following for some time now..top notch analysis indeed! :)
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Arpi thank you, 100% accuracy
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i love you!!!!
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hahahh,.,, we'll see u when i see U:)
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goes good!
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