FX:XAUUSD   黄金/美元
159 0
This count is based on the assumption that *XAUUSD 4 HOUR BULL (MINOR ALTERNATE 1)* is correct, in that minor 4 has terminated and that minor 5 is underway.

Here is a closer look at the subdivisions of what could be the early stages of minor 5.

This count states that 1) minute 1 is complete and 2) minute 2 is underway and near completion as an ascending triangle .

If the triangle is symmetrical then we have an overshoot of wave D. If the triangle is ascending then we can expect wave E to overshoot.
However the latter is more valid since it adheres to the guideline that it is wave E that tends to overshoot. But for non-bias, both are considered to determine the particular variation of this triangle.

Is minuette D nearer to minuette B (for ascending triangle ) or the symmetrical clone of the line connecting minuette waves A and C? It is closer to the former (but only by a small margin). Therefore I will accept that the nature of the triangle at hand is ascending and not symmetrical. What this means in terms of predictive analysis, is that the guideline of a wave E overshoot is prominent but it may not move beyond the end of wave C.

It is highly probable that Minute 2 is complete and Minute 3 is underway. This will be confirmed after more price action.
评论: *count invalidated*

Wave E may not move beyond the end of wave C even if it's an overshoot.

However, the invalidation of the subdivision count does not detract from validity of the parent count. In the next publication titled *MINUTE ALTERNATE 2*, we will calculate how minute 2 may be unfolding otherwise.


*MINUTE ALTERNATE 1* presenting the corrective formation of an ascending triangle was inaccurate. Wave B ought to be somewhat in line with the beginning of Wave A. This certainly wasn't the case.
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