Gold prices are upheld despite the obstacle of a strong dollar
<Fundamental>
The September CPI exceeding market expectations has reduced the likelihood of a Fed’s jumbo cut, leading to a sharp increase in the dollar and Treasury yields. The probability of a 50bp cut is now at 0%, with a 10.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. However, despite the dollar going north, gold prices are getting attention, approaching all-time highs, partly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The upcoming release of September retail sales data is expected to impact gold prices directly. A solid retail sales outcome would reduce the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts, and the gold’s uptrend would take a break for a while.
<Technical>
XAUUSD bounced back to 2650 after briefly testing EMA21. The price sustains a solid uptrend within the ascending channel and holds above both EMAs, indicating a bullish signal. If XAUUSD breaches the resistance at 2680 and the ascending channel's upper bound, the price may gain upward momentum toward a new record high of 2780. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks EMA21 and fails to hold above the ascending channel's lower bound, the price may fall further to the 2520 level, where EMA78 coincides.
The September CPI exceeding market expectations has reduced the likelihood of a Fed’s jumbo cut, leading to a sharp increase in the dollar and Treasury yields. The probability of a 50bp cut is now at 0%, with a 10.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. However, despite the dollar going north, gold prices are getting attention, approaching all-time highs, partly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The upcoming release of September retail sales data is expected to impact gold prices directly. A solid retail sales outcome would reduce the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts, and the gold’s uptrend would take a break for a while.
<Technical>
XAUUSD bounced back to 2650 after briefly testing EMA21. The price sustains a solid uptrend within the ascending channel and holds above both EMAs, indicating a bullish signal. If XAUUSD breaches the resistance at 2680 and the ascending channel's upper bound, the price may gain upward momentum toward a new record high of 2780. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks EMA21 and fails to hold above the ascending channel's lower bound, the price may fall further to the 2520 level, where EMA78 coincides.
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