Gold lost 42 USD over the last 4 trading days and briefly touched 1,315 USD intraday.. The recovery since then is bullish and could indeed be the beginning of the final 5th wave up targeting around 1,375 - 1,400 USD. 1h and 4h chart getting overbought already so an immediate entry does not make too much sense but it could very well mean that anybody who got stopped out during the recent pullback is now running behind rising prices... There is still a chance that gold makes one more leg down into my ideal buying zone 1,315 - 1,295 USD... but I am not so sure about this anymore.. We need to stay patient here... My recommendation: buy gold on any small pullback below 1,330 USD and especially below 1,320 USD... You need to give it a wide stop meaning 1,280 USD or lower...
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Looks like gold is going to make a new low in the pullback. 1h very oversold, 4h getting oversold. I continue to beliebe that downside is limited and that we will still get one more wave up.. Ideal buying zone 1,315 - 1,295 USD Stopps below 1,280 USD
10 days later its getting more and more clear that gold is in trouble.. we got a quick but short-lived bounce on Monday.. since then gold gave back all those gains rather quickly and even touched 1,277 USD already... I think the scenario of a final 5th wave is getting more and more unlikely.. Instead gold will probably sell off further down towards 1,265-1,262 USD. From here a dramatic bounce/recovery should be expected.. probably towards 1,335/1.345 USD. room here the final C wave could then take gold down to the 200MA around 1,245 USD.... I am patiently standing at the sidelines waiting for signals that a bounce from around 1,265 USD might have started from extremely oversold levels ...
Now oversold, looks like we can turn up any time soon. I've been accumulating mining companies' shares and riding the uptrend for a while, and again here. What is your view on GFI and AU?
MidasTouchConsulting
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@IvanLabrie, South-African mining stocks are a complex & difficult story.
Personally I like Sibanye more..
But Gold Fields GFI is looking good here.. Definitely following the gold price and should probably make a new high in the coming months..
Anglogold Ashanti did not follow the gold price.. only very recently .. therefore I don't like it.. if gold is posting a 150 USD rally and a mining stock is not reacting at all or very very late I think there are unknown reasons to be sceptic... but AU basically just rallied to its 200MA and fell back.. normal procedure.. now consolidating between 50MA and 200MA for some time before the stock should finally be able to breakout above its 200MA.. then we could quickly 13,50 USD again
IvanLabrie
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@MidasTouchConsulting, I just scooped a few futures contracts under last week's low. As for the South African miners, indeed, fundamentals drove sentiment extremely low, which made it attractive as a contrarian play. Specially in the case of AU. GFI is a good play, being relatively stronger, agree with you there. You have any positions in lithium or cobalt miners btw?
Best of luck, and thanks for the reply.
pubokiazm
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it's so confusing. every time frame gives contradiction signals. low mid high tframes...
MidasTouchConsulting
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@pubokiaz, that´s what markets do.. otherwise everybody could make money easily.. but no worries.. I think it´s still looking good.. just make sure you give enough room to breath... 4th correction wave down can be tricky.. 1h chart pretty oversold so downside should be limited...