After the good job data on Friday gold was still able to recover. It shows us how bullish everybody on gold... Traders are buying every dip. We rallied 6 weeks continuously. It's time for a decline to the daily cycle low.
What could trigger a daily cycle low in this bullish sentiment? FOMC on 27th of July. After this strong job data nothing stands in the way of the FED for a rate hike. Actually that is their last chance before the elections. Everything is ready for that: stocks are all time highs, the Brexit vote is done... Yellen will come out next week to prepare the market for 27th July.
The question is the next: will gold test the 1390-1400 ( target price counted from the pennant) or not. 1390$ also the the 2014 March intermediate high. It's hard to imagine we can continue this rally without a DCL.
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The possible DCL could occur at the 10 EMA (or 200 MA) on the weekly chart.
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Hanging man candlestick on the daily chart. Forming after an advance, a hanging man signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow confirms that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of selling pressure is there on high volume. On Monday we need bearish confirmation. The best would be a red candlestick on heavy volume without breaking Friday's daily high. Though we might get a test of 1390-1400 $ first in the Asian session before the decline .
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The question is did we have the cycle top on day 27 or we are going to have it on Monday at day 30?
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Gold soar on the strong data was a perfect opportunity for banks to sell their miner shares on high volume. I wouldn't be surprised on a gap down on Monday in GDX.
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One more interesting thing: Gold and gold miners...
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Gold rally on low volume. Miners were trading near record volume.
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We are forming an hourly range.
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It looks moere and more to me that we are in a range. As today the dollar seems to be starting its decline gold will be tough to fall...
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So far so good.
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My red candle is covered by the real candle. :)
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My second red candle is covered by this week candle. Press play...
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pbartashevich
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I am still a Brear :). Here is my positive bearish thoughts:
Good jobs report clearly points that rate hike in July will be on the table this month. If we have a rise in Gold price next week it will not pass Friday July 15. Very big data day: GDP China, CPI EU, CPI US - I suspect it will also be good, I mean pro-rate hike. Same reason that Gold will have wait for that date consolidate but not drop big time - giving time to offload miners shares. They need time to do that - 4 days should be enough. If Friday data confirmed to be good we will have 2 weeks of decline and consolidation in Gold until July 29 because media will go nuts about rate hike. That would our DCL. No hike - too much uncertainty - gold goes up after. This DCL should be deep enough to have some room going north.
"Britain will have a new prime minister by 2 September, after the executive of the Conservative party’s backbench 1922 Committee set a TIGHTER than expected timetable for selecting a new leader." - Why tighter? - FOMC meeting on Sept 20-21. Last chance to influence US election. I believe they need one hike before election to be able to state that US economy is doing great and there is no need to "Make this country great again." :). S&P will be posting new highs, so they can hike in Sept safely. Gold goes down to next ICL after.
I believe nobody wants gold to go up much further. It should have fallen at Brexit "remain" vote. Didn't happened - now crisis management unfolding - so far successful.
ps: 1380 is 0.38 fib retracement in bear market :)
isaac312
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No hike after Brexit
Uk cut rate
Eu more Qe
Italy default risk - bail out or bail in
Greece default risk payment due 7.20. No payment -grexit. Much impact than brexit
Jp QE
Ch cute reserve ratio
Strong dollar push risk on emergin debt expense
Fed knows something happen In EU that they should not touch rate.
Macro is not that simple mate. Job? Not a good quality mate. Ignoring June? Cz of July? This is a example of human mind is very obligated with something new :) CH is slowingdown. Look at their exodus, CPI, PPI, import, export, current account. Lol
CPI in EU will be better? :)
pbartashevich
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That Barrik (ABX) liquidation.. That one supposed to be last to fall.
pbartashevich
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All my DUST allocated money are in play. The question is now will $1300 stop it or it will fall further? I can't get rid of idea that they will talk rate hikes next two weeks and therefore gold should keep falling/consolidating all this time.
junp2010
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HI chart, your gold post help me a lot. Now I share my knowledge as well. as I count gold is in wave 5 from Friday after job data. wave 3 is 61 dollars, which mean wave5 should be less than that. wave 4 bottom at 1336, so wave 5 top is no more than 1397.
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SO most probably we have 1-2 more days before the decline starts
junp2010
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If Monday Asia market go up quickly, it is topping most likely.
Good jobs report clearly points that rate hike in July will be on the table this month. If we have a rise in Gold price next week it will not pass Friday July 15. Very big data day: GDP China, CPI EU, CPI US - I suspect it will also be good, I mean pro-rate hike. Same reason that Gold will have wait for that date consolidate but not drop big time - giving time to offload miners shares. They need time to do that - 4 days should be enough. If Friday data confirmed to be good we will have 2 weeks of decline and consolidation in Gold until July 29 because media will go nuts about rate hike. That would our DCL. No hike - too much uncertainty - gold goes up after. This DCL should be deep enough to have some room going north.
"Britain will have a new prime minister by 2 September, after the executive of the Conservative party’s backbench 1922 Committee set a TIGHTER than expected timetable for selecting a new leader." - Why tighter? - FOMC meeting on Sept 20-21. Last chance to influence US election. I believe they need one hike before election to be able to state that US economy is doing great and there is no need to "Make this country great again." :). S&P will be posting new highs, so they can hike in Sept safely. Gold goes down to next ICL after.
I believe nobody wants gold to go up much further. It should have fallen at Brexit "remain" vote. Didn't happened - now crisis management unfolding - so far successful.
ps: 1380 is 0.38 fib retracement in bear market :)