I haven't posted the COT numbers for a long time now... It's time to take a look at that now. The Commitment of Traders report (COT) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .
The last Blees rating numbers (near 0) are showing that commercials are heavily shorting the gold market. The commercial short position has been raising for a few weeks now. It was at 413.000 (!!!) last Tuesday. This is a horrible number. I think on the 24th May the Blees will be above 10, so it's turning up from zero (Last Tuesday it was 3) I noticed when the blees is turning down from 100 or turning up from zero the real decline/ rally is getting started.
This COT data/Blees rating numbers are crying for a correction. I doubt that most of the bulls are prepared the decline what these numbers are predicting. Everybody and his his dog plus his wife is short at the commercials.... My first post in January was the COT report as well which predicted the monster rally in gold:
That's what i thought,,,,I've only seen a couple of bloggers that track the blees numbers, and they all calculate the numbers themselves based on the COT reports I was hoping to find a web site that plots blees number on a chart. In any event keep up the good work. I monitor your posts every morning in the hour before markets open here in the US.
JesseL
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do you calculate the number and plug it into your chart, or is there a built in indicator/strategy in traderview pro?
chartwatchers
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No this is my calculation.
There's a formula for it:
Commercial shorts-commercial longs= X
X-last 2 years minimum X number=Y
Last 2 years maximum X- Last 2 years minimum X =Z
Blees= Y/Z*100
chartwatchers
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...and I plug it into the chart
darth.stocks
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Sorry to bothe you with this question, but,
a) are you using 78 weeks as in orig. or 104 ?
and
b) what is really different to the "usual" numbers as from "COT Report Index" (156)
just asking since i'm currently implementing a script for it...