I think we are seeing a massive sentiment extreme here, indicating a short term bottom in cryptocurrencies accross the board. We needed to see sentiment turn from extremely positive to extremely negative, to generate a new buy signal to resume the trend, so this is expected and good for longs. I'm watching here to add to BTC longs, since I only hold 10% I entered at 2050 EUR on June 15th, after being in cash for a while. Since then, I traded a few times, but overall, we carry some losing trades, despite making some good gains on a few ones as well. If you're mainly following a trend, there will be periods of loss during consolidations. The good thing, is our portfolio is 'less down' than just holding BTC. After the consolidation phase ends, we will outperform simply holding BTC again, which is the goal of my trading as an active manager.
That being said, keep an eye out for the next two days here, if we do hold, we can be sure of a return to the 2170-2293 levels again, and possibly, people will turn bullish after breaking the triangle trendline up, by then...to quickly see their trade fail, and then break down, people in despair again, and some shorting again...to then see their trade fail once more after fundamental risks disappear, IF they do resolve favorably. I think it is likely that miners finally give up on their precious ASICBOOST advantage, in lieu of higher BTC prices, since they are backs against the wall, with a dagger pointed at their throat right now, thanks to the BIP148/UASF countdown. No one wants a split, it doesn't benefit anyone I think. They might try to stall it, meanwhile, and I guess whoever mines the UASF chain, will benefit from it the most after it is the dominant one and other variants are abandoned, so, it does make sense for them to not reveal their stack of cards before August 1st.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie, crypto bull, despite mobs with tar, feathers, pitchforks and torches in the streets looking for me.
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So far so good.
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I'm still willing to buy at long term support as per this chart.
Always love reading your analysis. I sorted at 2k euro hoping for a drop & bounce at around 1500-1800 levels at least, so I'm definitely hoping it will be a bearish July. I am willing (but not happy ofc) to take a small bet in order to be safe from a short crash. But most of all, I definitely hope we get a bearish couple of weeks so I can buy back even more cheaply some of my favorite altscoins.
IvanLabrie
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@cryptodoge, I can still be proved wrong with support holding here, but if there is no follow through in 2 days, I would be worried, being short. Best of luck either way.
“We all are. But sometimes it’s a lonely place.”
― Susan Mallery, Sweet Trouble