BTCUSD has been on a hard downward trajectory for the past month. I touched on these patterns a bit and we hit both of the targets set out by the bearish gartley harmonic. After re-assessing the current state of things, I believe we may be in for a rally, before a final corrective wave downwards.
We completed a leading diagonal (falling wedge) last night. This was confirmed by the 3-3-3-3-3 subwaves, making up the 1-2-3-4-5 pattern, with the 5th wave being characteristically overthrown. The fact that it overthrew the wedge gives me even more confidence in this call. This wedge makes up our (A) wave of the ABC correction. We climatically ended in the $7500s as predicted. I think we will now have a sharp retrace, forming wave (B), to either the 61.8% or 78.6% retracement levels of wave (A). This will give the market confidence in a renewed bull run, just before the bottom falls out once again. The price targets for wave be are $15k-$17k. As the 78.6% retracement is far more typical for B waves, I would anticipate the yellow path to be our most likely. From there we will have an equally sharp conclusion to our ABC correction down to $5k. I am posting this idea as Long, because that is the current sentiment, however be cautious to start exiting positions in the range mentioned above.
This rally will also likely give some breathing room to altcoins. ETHUSD and ETHBTC have been looking particularly bullish, and may be ones to watch. However, trade with caution as strong BTCUSD rallies can often suck the wind out of alts, so this may not trade as expected.
I will update as this unfolds. My last thread on the bearish gartley is concluded. The ideas to watch from here are the macro bullish gartley and this one here.
*THESE ARE MY OPINIONS, THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
We completed a leading diagonal (falling wedge) last night. This was confirmed by the 3-3-3-3-3 subwaves, making up the 1-2-3-4-5 pattern, with the 5th wave being characteristically overthrown. The fact that it overthrew the wedge gives me even more confidence in this call. This wedge makes up our (A) wave of the ABC correction. We climatically ended in the $7500s as predicted. I think we will now have a sharp retrace, forming wave (B), to either the 61.8% or 78.6% retracement levels of wave (A). This will give the market confidence in a renewed bull run, just before the bottom falls out once again. The price targets for wave be are $15k-$17k. As the 78.6% retracement is far more typical for B waves, I would anticipate the yellow path to be our most likely. From there we will have an equally sharp conclusion to our ABC correction down to $5k. I am posting this idea as Long, because that is the current sentiment, however be cautious to start exiting positions in the range mentioned above.
This rally will also likely give some breathing room to altcoins. ETHUSD and ETHBTC have been looking particularly bullish, and may be ones to watch. However, trade with caution as strong BTCUSD rallies can often suck the wind out of alts, so this may not trade as expected.
I will update as this unfolds. My last thread on the bearish gartley is concluded. The ideas to watch from here are the macro bullish gartley and this one here.
*THESE ARE MY OPINIONS, THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE*
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I forgot to mention the alternative to the yellow path would be the 0.618 fib retracement and a price target of $3k for our last corrective (C) wave.
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Posting this potentially to support the 5-3-5-3-5 leading diagonal theory. Will work up a count that counters this argument with a 3-3-3-3-3 ending diagonal, which would really shake things up.
(THE 3-3-3-3-3 SUBWAVE STATEMENT WAS A MISTAKE, SHOULD BE 5-3-5-3-5 FOR LEADING AS POINTED OUT BY @BostjanZ2017)
(THE 3-3-3-3-3 SUBWAVE STATEMENT WAS A MISTAKE, SHOULD BE 5-3-5-3-5 FOR LEADING AS POINTED OUT BY @BostjanZ2017)
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And I forgot to post the chart:
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Slight bullish reinforcement here. Daily is looking to close with a tweezer bottom, bullish reversal signal:
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Retesting bottom trend line now, this needs to hold or else we could see new lows.
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We're also sitting on the 61.8% fib support. This is crucial.
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Small time frames, so take this with a grain of salt. I think we just fell out of an ending diagonal. Charted it as a parallel channel, just to rule that out, and we had broken out of that on increasing volume. I think a lower low is in store, but a temporary bottom is likely still near.
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Forgot chart:
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I posted an update on this trading idea, see here:
