salaryman
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XBTUSD Elliot Wave Signals Upcoming Reversal

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
The drop from the top near 5,000USD has followed relatively distinct downward Elliot Waves on the 4-hour timeframe - including a characteristically indecisive Wave 4.
It is clear now that we have entered into Wave 5, and it is often said that wave 5 can be the longest.
Despite strong support around 3,800USD, a bearish pattern appears to have already formed before any substantial retrace from 3,750USD.
It is possible that Wave 5 is still not yet complete, and we may expect a reversal at the next support near 3,500USD.

Interestingly, the 3,500USD support aligns with the initial sell-off resistance after breaking 3,000USD in early-August.
This pattern was also observed in the last major correction down to 1,800USD in mid-July, with an extended Wave 5 and a reversal at the initial sell-off after breaking 1,300USD.

However, depending on the strength of the reversal, the longer term bear cycle may continue until we approach the lower trend lines .
评论: It seems that XBTUSD failed to find support at 3,500 and wave 5 is far more extended than expected.
The 3,200 support appears to be breaking down as well.
However, we may have a glimpse into how things will play out by referring to BTCJPY movements. Over at Coincheck (Japan's largest exchange by volume but not featured in TV), we saw the price fall as far as 295,000JPY (~2,670USD), followed by an intense 1 hour rally up to 380,000JPY (3,440USD).
There is strong buying pressure waiting below, but USD exchanges may have to fall to 3,000 or below in order to find sufficient volume for reversal.
Meanwhile, it seems unlikely that Japan will revisit those prices after the bullish engulfing.
评论: ABC correction was observed but at lower prices than predicted. We've finally hit the C target now a week late, but better late than never.
Trade closed.
Good technical analysis. Thanks salaryman!
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