I drew that first red line on the wrong side, it should be a support line instead. So, the price will be hugging the second red line, but not passing above it. Oh, and you know how everybody is now bullish (welcome to the f'in party)? And everybody says that the 2nd peak will be 14k? It won't it will be 15.5k. So I wouldn't sell early.
Domsax48
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...you sure?
ckim802
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@Domsax48, it's either that or we've just confirmed that we are in the second downturn of a continuing crash, so, yea, I'm sure.
ckim802
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@Domsax48, Let me expand on my reply. Crypto is by nature a speculative market, and there are too many people with itchy trigger fingers on the sell button. Conversely, there are also too many people with itchy trigger fingers on the buy button. FUD and FMO are two sides of the same coin. I think we can all agree that this was the first of Bitcoin's 'bubbles' where access to purchase the commodity itself increased as fast as its price. My theory is that the number of people who gained access to purchase Bitcoin, and have funds on hand to buy should it show signs of life, has increased at a faster rate than the rate of the price increase. Think 10million people able to convert fiat to crypto, as opposed to 1 million. Now, whether or not those extra 9 million sold during the crash, or have any coins on hand is irrelevant. What's more important is that there are more trigger fingers on the buy button than there are on the sell button. Every drop to a "support" level is going to bring about the first wave of trigger-happy buyers, and the price will go up for a time, then panic sell. Some of those new buyers will simply hold unless the price goes below their purchase price. But now, there are people in line to buy, at above the previous low, thinking that it won't go that far again, "oh man, it's getting near that low, I missed out the last time, time to pull the trigger". Enough of these buying waves, while the price ping-pongs around and still remains above its lowest point, is fueling this rocket ship, more and more. More people buy and hold, and others FMO pull the trigger. Additionally, with each wave, the numbers of die-hard - this is going to go nowhere - sellers are dwindling in number. When all of that pent-up buying power is unleashed at a certain price (10400, 11500, 12000, are the best candidates), it will be a flood, and as would be by definition, last year's "bubble" would be looked back to as a bear trap. Access, my friend, access to purchase, no need to have a certain net worth, a certain amount of bankroll or other privileges, access that allows the little guy to go big, for the first time. This is why a Goldman-Sachs backed startup just purchased a crytpo exchange - gotta have coins on hand to provide access, why TD Ameritrade is rolling out Bitcoin futures, and why the investment portfolios of the rich are increasingly adding crypto and crypto related assets. This is a ship that will not sink until everyone that wants access, has access, and the sharks and the bankers have been able to milk every single dime from this cash cow. After the actual crash, at least a few of the coins will actually go on to become profitable platforms, but it's going to take another run for that to come to fruition. Now back to forex, take a look at the crash at happened in 2013 and bear trap that was September 2017, notice any differences? The only thing that's different is what happens right at this point, we either plummet a notch lower or sky-rocket to new highs. Compare where the 200 SMA as it moves across both time periods. Where do you think we are, bull trap or bear trap?
Domsax48
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@ckim802, thank you very much for the analysis. Your conclusion is very much same as some other serious articles I have read on the subject: the great ICO-fever and the hype will die off eventually, and a few really useful coins will remain (and will be extremely profitable for early investors). But currently no one really knows which one will be those.