This is just very rough, but this is how I see XLM price development in 2018. Hodlers will not be disappointed in my opinion. Remember the entire market is going through a rough patch
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Think of it as not the people which define the market, but rather a set of initial parameters (whatever they are x, y, z etc). These parameters define market dynamics in a chaotic manner. (Ahh that would mean the outcome is not predictable beforehand, so no golden formula, damn.) Chaos means only that the outcome is not a priori predictable, however we know from this theory that such initial conditions produce complex, highly organised systems such as fractal patterns, which repeat with each iteration (not 100 % identical due to feedback effects). These patterns allow us to visual the market dynamics, but what you must remember is that these dynamics already exist! They are like a mold and the investors are like molten iron being poured into the market, they fill up the available space during the hot hype phase, then at the top with start to cool off until we reach the bottom and the caste is removed from the mold. Then we start the process again. The people who make the news and develop the projects (and everybody in the entire universe) are poured into the mold along with the investors. They are market participants too even if they don't know it! We are all connected!
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Just a matter of time now
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This is for all you lovers out there. We can see the USD price for XLM is actually following pretty close to my back of the envelope prediction from January. Brilliant pat on the back yayay... but if you look at the previous crash you can see that the price bounces off the 200 day MA for a while and I think that will happen now too. In my opinion I don't yet see any reliable signal that Bitcoin has finished its correction so, at the moment, I still think XLMUSD will decrease as forecast.
This particular pattern looks like a standard growth chart.... adoption, more adoption, vertical fomo, dip, almost recover; then fall until something causes the sequence to start over.
So yes, you're probably right. Up until there's some news - which should be fairly soon.
RealMcafee
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@bananafund, Great point. The question is whether future news is already included in the patterns, which is a bit of a mind bender I know, but listen. If these charts display crowd behaviour, then the argument is that positive and negative news (hype and fud), whatever the details may be, are already included in the patterns. That's pretty spooky I know. I think it relates to chaos theory (am not an expert), where the initial conditions determine the exact nature of reoccurring fractal patterns. In our case, initial conditions at the time of market launch determine the crowd dynamics (how? if you knew that you'd have the golden formula for all markets). It is strange to think of human beings in this way I know, that's why I mostly just look for the patterns and trust them instead.
So yes, you're probably right. Up until there's some news - which should be fairly soon.