XMR has been moving up and down quite a lot within its downward trend, with wednesday striking as low $235. Considering the MACD is indicating an upcoming uptrend, we might see another push, which I expect to be VERY short-lived. We have a death cross (red arrow) forming as the 50 EMA (blue) is moving down below the 200 EMA (green) which generally indicates a VERY weak trend. Additionally, ALTs are suffering directly from BTCs downtrend. Since Bitcoin has not hit its bottom yet and is very likely to go for another run at the $9,2k support pretty soon, we can expect XMR to move similarly, going as low as $235 again.
My buy order will be at around $235, where I expect XMR to bounce back up. (The lower trendline (black) will be a very strong support) Anything can happen however, which is why we should keep an eye on both BTC and XMR movement and stay adaptive with our trades.
Summary: XMR is very likely to hit its previous low from wednesday again, which is a strong support level and therefor makes for a good buyzone.
Note: The blue arrows neither indicate any timeframes, nor any exact price levels. Their only purpose is to show general movement.
------------ This is no financial advice and only for educational purposes.
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If you currently are holding XMR, you might want to exit your position once Bitcoin clearly fails at the $11,2k mark and starts to head for the 10k mark again. We WILL see another drop of XMR, so exiting right now is also very likely going to result in a successful trade. Again, the market IS very volatile and we always have to be prepared for the unexpected.
Do not blindly follow my advice. I only want to point out trading opportunities, take them at your own risk.
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Something is gonna happen soon. It's probably best to stay safe for now and wait it out. Regardless of wheteher we are gonna see a push up in the next few hours or not: Another drop is almost inevitable, so waiting for a lower point to buy in will definitely be worth it.
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There could be one more small push and then we will see a clear move towards the bottom channel.
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It looks like we anticipated the pattern right! The short push seems over and we are heading downtown currently.
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This might last for 7-8 more hours until the CME futures for Bitcoin expire.
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Probably some movement near the $315 area in the next hour. Let's wait and see what happens after the futures run out.
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The $290 resistance (red-dotted line), which I had not included in the main post, did not break once again. Once we breach below it, we will see our move down to the black lower trendline.
Patience is the key.
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We also have the Stoch RSI and the MACD indicating some more bearish momentum, which could make us cross the heavy resistance line soon.
This is the 4h chart btw.
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Sorry for the colour confusion with the EMA lines, orange is 50 EMA, purple 100 EMA and blue 200 EMA. Just a note on the side, not that it matters too much for us right now.
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I think we will see another push and have to wait it out for now. Stopped the trade from here and will wait for further movement.
@PeterTrubetskoy, Yes, I shorted XMR all along. We are in a very bearish downtrend right now and will probably hit the lower resistance at around 225$ to 235$.
Ladywalker
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@PeterTrubetskoy, I expect our buyzone to be hit within tomorrow.
Ladywalker
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@Ladywalker, That is not accurate anymore, as we did not breach the heavy resistance as shown in my last update. This means that our trade is still valid, but will take more time than anticipated earlier.