5Y Note waiting for Yellen at daily trend support
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup still has bullish bias
- Pull back within a wide range. Price at Kijun Sen support.
- No trend, but maybe a huge rounded base has been built in last 3 years.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral: price back to Kumo, below Tenkan and Kijun, Tenkan is still above Kijun though!
A break above Tenkan would accelerate buying again.
- Heikin-Ashi has been counter bearish, but started to signal some momentum loss at Kumo and trendline support
- EWO negative, but still close to neutral zero level.
0,5 Unit buy here. If Yellen goes dovish/less hawkish, Price can shoot higher again. You can also use a tight stop loss below Kumo and trendline.
Why to buy 5y instead of 10y?
My argument is still the same: I think markets started to price a reflation/stagflation story, where long end bonds will stay under selling pressure as inflation expectations increase, while front end and mid curve bonds will outperform, as central banks in general, and the FED too will stay well behind the curve. They will refrain from hiking too much, or too early, not to kill the fragile (or non existing) growth. It means yield curve steepening. So whenever I think about buying bonds, I rather buy mid curve, when I sell, I short long end.
- Ichimoku setup still has bullish bias
- Pull back within a wide range. Price at Kijun Sen support.
- No trend, but maybe a huge rounded base has been built in last 3 years.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral: price back to Kumo, below Tenkan and Kijun, Tenkan is still above Kijun though!
A break above Tenkan would accelerate buying again.
- Heikin-Ashi has been counter bearish, but started to signal some momentum loss at Kumo and trendline support
- EWO negative, but still close to neutral zero level.
0,5 Unit buy here. If Yellen goes dovish/less hawkish, Price can shoot higher again. You can also use a tight stop loss below Kumo and trendline.
Why to buy 5y instead of 10y?
My argument is still the same: I think markets started to price a reflation/stagflation story, where long end bonds will stay under selling pressure as inflation expectations increase, while front end and mid curve bonds will outperform, as central banks in general, and the FED too will stay well behind the curve. They will refrain from hiking too much, or too early, not to kill the fragile (or non existing) growth. It means yield curve steepening. So whenever I think about buying bonds, I rather buy mid curve, when I sell, I short long end.
