APPLE BANKRUPTCY ????? Never! But times are crazy mad....
已更新
This chart shows Apple from just before 1981 it was listed.
Note how normal everything was until the post 2008 Fed madness induced hyper-bubble. Apple is one of the best companies on earth, maybe the best, but not this good!!!!
The final ABC move in Elliot Wave analysis when coupled with the usual Fibonacci retaracements when this happens is frightening. Note also the negative divergences on the RSI, all the way back to the start of the bubble just after 2008.
In an ABC down move as indicate, which now seems possible as crazy is in this market, it is usual for the C to make a negative 1.618 Fib retracement as seen. This would be one hell of a decline after this Fed and Treasury and White House induced mania in the middle of a pandemic and biggest recession in US history, potentially below Zero.
Rubbish you may say. Like the recent oil price? - so don't rubbish the possibility of getting down there!!!!
We also live in a state of absolute chaos at the moment. Nothing is impossible now.
Technicals aside, what fundamentals could possibly allow such a thing, you may ask:
In a Trump presidency, led by an anti-tech flat-earther con-man used to surviving by use of smoke and mirrors. Cook knew the danger from the beginning and did everything to save Apple, almost sleeping with the devil. Trump hates gays, California and tech. And so do his supporters on the whole. Even if they have iPhones. In their opinion Apple should move to the heartland, manufacture in the heartland and be run and owned by people there. When the shit hits the fan he'll say he gave Apple every opportunity to return all Apple operations to the USA so its their fault.
So, huge disruptions with China likely, production and supply line breakdown. Taiwan, where most of the world's microprocessors are made including most that go in Apple products will be dragged in, supply lines hit or even halted if China asserts its claim to the Island. The world's microchip industries could go into freefall. Of course, in China the last two years they've produced the capabilities to furnish most of their semiconductor needs. 99% of microprocessors don't need to be that smart, just do the job, and the 1% edge the USA had has probably disappeared - those Chines built COVID super hospitals in a week and eliminated most of the country from disease in a month a two, whereas meanwhile in the good ole' USA....
China market for its products could also go quickly - it's one of Apple's largest - not only because of Government pressures (like the Trump mob had done with Apple's potential future competitors) but just as Americans are doing in now avoiding Chinese brands the Chinese will do the same for whatever normal human reasons.
In the USA and other large western markets, the last thing anyone is going to be doing the next year or two is running to the Apple shop and buying the latest top of the range iPad's or other shit immediately after lockdown. Millions unemployed. Some dead. Most dealing with the costs and losses. Very careful. I am a lawyer still luckily employed and earning good money, and often spent $10,000 plus on Apple products. I've spent zero this year, and budgeting close to zero for the next five plus, other than if absolutely necessary basic replacement of phones or PC's - and now only the bottom of the range rather than top of the range, otherwise everything will have to last until it breaks, not the latest as it comes out anymore for me. I need to catch up with the asset price run away so I can one day buy a house and maybe have enough invested to retire. This current market bubble means I now won't be able to buy more than the basics now for years to come. My pension fund seems to have lost almost all my savings and investments on both the way down and in particular up in the mindless mad crazy market. I've made a bit on the side, but this market is beyond mad now.
Apple is too much part of the good past of America was to survive into the nightmare that is its future. Perhaps fitting if its bankrupted along with the rest of the country. Run into the ground by a president who is the only person on earth who could bankrupt his own casino!!!!
Note how normal everything was until the post 2008 Fed madness induced hyper-bubble. Apple is one of the best companies on earth, maybe the best, but not this good!!!!
The final ABC move in Elliot Wave analysis when coupled with the usual Fibonacci retaracements when this happens is frightening. Note also the negative divergences on the RSI, all the way back to the start of the bubble just after 2008.
In an ABC down move as indicate, which now seems possible as crazy is in this market, it is usual for the C to make a negative 1.618 Fib retracement as seen. This would be one hell of a decline after this Fed and Treasury and White House induced mania in the middle of a pandemic and biggest recession in US history, potentially below Zero.
Rubbish you may say. Like the recent oil price? - so don't rubbish the possibility of getting down there!!!!
We also live in a state of absolute chaos at the moment. Nothing is impossible now.
Technicals aside, what fundamentals could possibly allow such a thing, you may ask:
In a Trump presidency, led by an anti-tech flat-earther con-man used to surviving by use of smoke and mirrors. Cook knew the danger from the beginning and did everything to save Apple, almost sleeping with the devil. Trump hates gays, California and tech. And so do his supporters on the whole. Even if they have iPhones. In their opinion Apple should move to the heartland, manufacture in the heartland and be run and owned by people there. When the shit hits the fan he'll say he gave Apple every opportunity to return all Apple operations to the USA so its their fault.
So, huge disruptions with China likely, production and supply line breakdown. Taiwan, where most of the world's microprocessors are made including most that go in Apple products will be dragged in, supply lines hit or even halted if China asserts its claim to the Island. The world's microchip industries could go into freefall. Of course, in China the last two years they've produced the capabilities to furnish most of their semiconductor needs. 99% of microprocessors don't need to be that smart, just do the job, and the 1% edge the USA had has probably disappeared - those Chines built COVID super hospitals in a week and eliminated most of the country from disease in a month a two, whereas meanwhile in the good ole' USA....
China market for its products could also go quickly - it's one of Apple's largest - not only because of Government pressures (like the Trump mob had done with Apple's potential future competitors) but just as Americans are doing in now avoiding Chinese brands the Chinese will do the same for whatever normal human reasons.
In the USA and other large western markets, the last thing anyone is going to be doing the next year or two is running to the Apple shop and buying the latest top of the range iPad's or other shit immediately after lockdown. Millions unemployed. Some dead. Most dealing with the costs and losses. Very careful. I am a lawyer still luckily employed and earning good money, and often spent $10,000 plus on Apple products. I've spent zero this year, and budgeting close to zero for the next five plus, other than if absolutely necessary basic replacement of phones or PC's - and now only the bottom of the range rather than top of the range, otherwise everything will have to last until it breaks, not the latest as it comes out anymore for me. I need to catch up with the asset price run away so I can one day buy a house and maybe have enough invested to retire. This current market bubble means I now won't be able to buy more than the basics now for years to come. My pension fund seems to have lost almost all my savings and investments on both the way down and in particular up in the mindless mad crazy market. I've made a bit on the side, but this market is beyond mad now.
Apple is too much part of the good past of America was to survive into the nightmare that is its future. Perhaps fitting if its bankrupted along with the rest of the country. Run into the ground by a president who is the only person on earth who could bankrupt his own casino!!!!
注释
PS - my suggestion is sell Apple at these all time highs. I just have - almost made me cry! And buy a gun. Whatever your political persuasion.We're about to enter the world of survival . The days of technology and science are over.
注释
Bought at the end of 2018 at $161 a share, sold today close on $400, so the sorrow in doing so were more for Apple than myself. Wish I had had more than just a couple of hundred shares....It's a great company, maybe the greatest of our time, now threatened to be popped by a Fed induced mania and now election induced bubble with the resulting economic, political and social chaos.
Anybody got any ideas what sort of gun I should buy with the proceeds?
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