Hello, Skyrexians!
Last couple of weeks something bad is happening on the crypto market. It's dumping hard, especially altcoins. Most of the top crypto traders has been waiting for altseason for quite a long period of time, but the result is the opposite. Major exchanges delisted some tokens, which immediately fall below it's critical levels, crypto trading strategies faces with huge losses, most of automated trading bots also hurt deposits, even grid trading bot got stop loss because of price falling below price range. In such a difficult times it's vital to chose the best assets to invest money. Finding such altcoins is important also for automated cryptocurrency trading because it needs enough liquidity. Today we will try to understand if
ARBUSDT
such asset or not, providing multi time frame analysis using different indicators.
Arbitrium weekly analysis - what Elliott waves are telling us?
Almost all profitable crypto trading strategies are based on Elliott Waves, at least for confirmation trading decisions. On the 1W chart we can see that the first bullish impulse has been obviously finished at $2.43. In my opinion now most of traders shall think that game is over because current dump has almost hit the wave 1 bottom, but waves 2 can retrace up to 100% of the wave 1, especially for such low cap altcoins. ARB is still not bottomed yet, but this bottom is next to.
if this anticipation is true this asset is about to start the impulsive wave 3, which has minimal target at $2.56, most likely at $3.58 and the optimistic one at $5.23. For sure it's not the final target for entire bull market if it will take place, just for wave 3. Extended wave 5 can easily double all these targets, but now it's too early to talk about it.
Last couple of weeks something bad is happening on the crypto market. It's dumping hard, especially altcoins. Most of the top crypto traders has been waiting for altseason for quite a long period of time, but the result is the opposite. Major exchanges delisted some tokens, which immediately fall below it's critical levels, crypto trading strategies faces with huge losses, most of automated trading bots also hurt deposits, even grid trading bot got stop loss because of price falling below price range. In such a difficult times it's vital to chose the best assets to invest money. Finding such altcoins is important also for automated cryptocurrency trading because it needs enough liquidity. Today we will try to understand if
ARBUSDT
such asset or not, providing multi time frame analysis using different indicators. Arbitrium weekly analysis - what Elliott waves are telling us?
Almost all profitable crypto trading strategies are based on Elliott Waves, at least for confirmation trading decisions. On the 1W chart we can see that the first bullish impulse has been obviously finished at $2.43. In my opinion now most of traders shall think that game is over because current dump has almost hit the wave 1 bottom, but waves 2 can retrace up to 100% of the wave 1, especially for such low cap altcoins. ARB is still not bottomed yet, but this bottom is next to.
if this anticipation is true this asset is about to start the impulsive wave 3, which has minimal target at $2.56, most likely at $3.58 and the optimistic one at $5.23. For sure it's not the final target for entire bull market if it will take place, just for wave 3. Extended wave 5 can easily double all these targets, but now it's too early to talk about it.
评论:
4h chart is telling us bearish phase is over?
Let's take a look also at 4h time frame. Remember our educational article on Elliott waves where we told about the waves inside waves. This chart looks inside the wave 5 in C. This wave also consists of 5 waves and we have some proofs that this trend is almost over.
First of all look how accurate price hit the wave 3 target at 1.61 Fibonacci. Wave 4 retraced to the target zone and now price has printed bullish divergence with AO. It's still unconfirmed, like bullish reversal bar which can be potentially formed soon, but MFI shows us two consecutive squat bars. It means that it's difficult to go lower and there is a huge battle between bulls and bears. We are ready for reversal now!
Conclusion
For sure most of traders now are losing money because nobody believe in Bitcoin, but most of them have been sitting in altcoins. But now as I can see the huge disappointment came to market. People are telling that it's all over, huge bear market ahead. We suppose that in such a disappointing times the largest opportunities come to the market. Be patient, control your risk and be happy.
Best regards,
Ivan, Skyrex
Let's take a look also at 4h time frame. Remember our educational article on Elliott waves where we told about the waves inside waves. This chart looks inside the wave 5 in C. This wave also consists of 5 waves and we have some proofs that this trend is almost over.
First of all look how accurate price hit the wave 3 target at 1.61 Fibonacci. Wave 4 retraced to the target zone and now price has printed bullish divergence with AO. It's still unconfirmed, like bullish reversal bar which can be potentially formed soon, but MFI shows us two consecutive squat bars. It means that it's difficult to go lower and there is a huge battle between bulls and bears. We are ready for reversal now!
Conclusion
For sure most of traders now are losing money because nobody believe in Bitcoin, but most of them have been sitting in altcoins. But now as I can see the huge disappointment came to market. People are telling that it's all over, huge bear market ahead. We suppose that in such a disappointing times the largest opportunities come to the market. Be patient, control your risk and be happy.
Best regards,
Ivan, Skyrex
评论:
Update
ARB broke the potential wave 1 level. We always have the alternative counting. It's not the buy signal still. Yesterday's bullish reversal bar on 4h has been invalidated. Current situation is following, the previous history is the wave 1, then we have seen the large expanding flat wave 2. Now it's the wave C which can be under $0.8 for some time, but finally will go to the $4 target.
ARB broke the potential wave 1 level. We always have the alternative counting. It's not the buy signal still. Yesterday's bullish reversal bar on 4h has been invalidated. Current situation is following, the previous history is the wave 1, then we have seen the large expanding flat wave 2. Now it's the wave C which can be under $0.8 for some time, but finally will go to the $4 target.
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On the chart below we can see ARB on the 1D time frame. We can see that larger degree wave 2 has ABC zigzag structure where the wave C now is about to be ended.
Awesome oscillator is telling us that bullish divergence between wave 3 and 5 inside the wave C is almost done. Only big drop can break it. For reversal confirmation we need bullish reversal bar and three consecutive green columns on AO histogram. It would be nice also to see the squat bar on MFI instead of green which we are seeing now. Green bar tells us that bears are still strong an dump is not finished, it's better to wait for the confirmations.