6/7/24 - $arlo - rich px 4 implied grow; wait for <$10 minimally

6月7日

6/7/24 - vrockstar/private - ARLO -

doing a review today of all IOT-related names given my small 1% (as of now) starter position in IOT (go read that for some nuance on sizing). here's a small cap now and my thinking. for now... not worth owning. i need a much better entry. setting target at sub $10 to take a closer look if/when.

looks expensive w/ minimal cash gen (ex. stock comp) and between 2-3x sales seems okay generally for this IOT sector, but top line growth has had some severe hiccups, and expected growth is MSD-HSD at best (which might end turning out to be low). i like how the stock/ chart have performed well v the Q's over the last years, but this might just be a function of zip code (IOT) rising tide vs. actual bottoms up fundamentals. it's one i've got on my radar but need to get a better entry.

11月8日

交易开始

snagged some at $9 AH last night's ER. will force me to do work and will check back!

11月8日

交易手动结束

think valuation is attractive, but non obvious still w/ the decline in 4Q expected (rev). stock based comp means there's no cash being generated just yet. while we could see a retrace higher, it's a distraction with stonks at highs and this is sinking. if/when we get a dump this will get dumped further. if/when we rally further, this won't see the first bid. i set a target below $8 if/when. otherwise i just let it go and follow along as they evolve.

V