Could we see some weakness in AUDJPY in the near term?

Both currencies are currently on the weaker side against their major counterparts. Despite the RBA holding off from cutting, nor hiking rates, the AUD struggled to find strong grounds. Similarly for JPY, where the currency has been hit because of no significant action taken by the BoJ, it has been tough for the yen to find strength. Also, strong global stock market activity made safe-haven yen less attractive.

Given that AUDJPY is seen as somewhat of a risk-on/risk-off monitor, we can see that the pair has been in “limbo” from around the end of August. From around the beginning of December, the pair started moving slightly upwards within a short-term rising channel formation. If we purely look at that structure, then we also examine the prevailing trend, which has been to the downside, meaning there is a greater chance for AUDJPY to exit the channel through the lower side of it. However, until we see that exit, we can not assume the breakout will be lower.

At the time of writing, looking at our EMAs on our daily chart, we can see that the price action is below all of them, indicating possible weakness to come. The MACD is showing some weakness in the upside momentum, and the RSI remains below 50. These are technical indications of potential downside in the near term.

Nevertheless, we would prefer to wait for a clearance of the lower side of the aforementioned channel, before considering any downside movement.

For us to shift our attention to some higher areas, a break of the upper side of that rising channel may indicate bullish activity. If that happens, the rate would also be placed above all our EMAs, possibly attracting more bulls into the field.


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