ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Is It Near A Bottom? Or Heading Down More?

2016年1月11日

The last time I posted something on this pair, I was touting the there was a MASSIVE MOVE in this pair coming. Now I did manage to capture over +500 pips on the move up from when I posted that more than 2 months ago (see tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/WjJVRAUK-ANALYSIS-AUDUSD-MASSIVE-MOVE-UP-COMING/) as prices moved sharply up after I posted that. But was that the "MASSIVE MOVE" I was referring to? Well, it wasn't but I'll take the +500 pips. Now after prices reached it's pinnacle from that move up, it's done nothing but move sideways and recently SHARPLY down. Not what I was expecting to be sure. So what to make of this recent move down that has pretty much recaptured almost all of that move up? Here's what I think:

WAVE COUNT
To better understand the wave count that you are seeing in the chart above, take a look at this DAILY chart below:
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In this DAILY chart, what i am seeing is that there is a WXY pattern forming with the W and X waves already done and now the Y pattern is forming in a ABC Zigzag pattern. Within this ABC Zigzag, this recent surprisingly strong move down was most likely a wave c of the (b) of the ABC. Wave c's are the corrective equivalent of wave 3's and the strength of this wave c is reminiscent of a wave 3. It is a 5-wave wave c with it's wave (v) of c possibly now coming to an end as shown in the 4HR Chart above.

PATTERNS
There are 2 COMPLETED Patterns here that prices are now in the PRZ of. There is a COMPLETED Gartley and a COMPLETED Bat. Both patterns are signaling that prices should be turning and heading back up. I have also placed a POSSIBLE Cypher pattern on the chart BUT prices WILL need to head down more in order for this POSSIBLE Cypher to become a POTENTIAL Cypher and come into play. Prices can go as low as 0.68834 and this cypher will still be valid. But prices DO have to get to 0,69184 to become valid. That level contains a strong fib level including the golden ration fib extension.

Now, if this is indeed going to be a wave (c) of that ABC up, then it has a LONG WAY to go! There are 2 more patterns that are for the LONG TERM. A Potential Crab and a POTENTIAL BAT. But that is for considering later.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR
It is trying to establish a low right now. So look for it to head back down again and re-challenge the recent low at0.69269. If it does retest it and that low does hold, then look for a BUY. It that low does not hold and prices break it, then look for another small push down probably into the 0.60200 - 0.69100 region before looking for another BUY setup. Should prices break below the CRITICAL Major SR Structure at 0.69070, then likely it will head to 0.69000.

MY TRADE PLAN
I am looking for a good setup to go LONG on this pair. If this is to be the wave (c) of the ABC, then this is the MASSIVE MOVE UP that I had been touting since 2 months ago! And if it is, I am looking at possibly +1000's of pips possible in this move.