AUDUSD short entry: AU craziness erased, return to trend in play

AU looks ripe for a short, waiting for a lower low on small tf.

We all saw the Flash Crash in AUD and YEN pairs, and we have seen it pretty much erased.
Now the pairs should return to their ongoing trend, and in this case it is downtrend.

This assumes NO Good News about the US - China trade war.
But even good news should only cause a minor spike.
China econ reports are dropping, AUS econ reports are bad.

Downtrend should continue, just a question of whether THIS is the entry point.
Having waited for that long spike to be erased and then some, it should be time.

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Background:
I am a longer term AUD bear, anticipating a serious drop yet to come

Since then I have been looking for shorting opps such as this plan:

After some good news about the US-China Trade War, I was expecting a significant move up:

As the above impulse wave up was ending, the top came into focus for shorts

My last plan was to let wave 4 retrace (up) take place and then try to catch wave 5 down

Then it looked like a bottom, got some long scalps in:

And then came that FLASH CRASH. Now I am looking for downtrend to resume

评论:

This microscopic Fib behavior points to .70962 for first wave.

if it does that, then it is becomes highly probable that we are starting a more significant down move
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评论:

Here we are at the next resistance.

I will be shocked, Shocked I tell you if it breaks above.

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评论:

No break above second Resistance. And now back to that first one, and as to be expected, is acting as support for now

I think it will break, perhaps after a dead cat bounce from here.

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