AUDUSD: a Bullish Bat in a Bullish Channel

2015年4月10日

Due to time restrictions, no fundamental analysis on this pair. It has been trading in a 134 pip wide bullish parallel channel for almost 10 days on the 30m timeframe. We can now see a bullish Bat pattern having developed. Price is already testing the full potential reversal zone (PRZ). With this, the set up qualifies as a trade candidate and it goes on my watch list. When defining the potential reversal zone (PRZ) for a Bat pattern, we look at the projection of three harmonic levels. I: the 886 retracement of XA, II: an extended AB = CD pattern (in this case 1272 AB = CD) and III: a BC expansion (in this case 2000 BC). This defines a tight zone, just 10 pips wide, represented by the orange lines in the chart. Should price action reverse convincingly, I would enter long. SL goes 15 pips behind X. TP1 = 382 retracement of AD and TP2 = 618 retracement of AD. In terms of trade management, when TP1 is hit I would take profit on 1 position and roll my stop loss to breakeven, enjoying a risk free trade hunting for TP2.

There are 60 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.1!

UPDATE 1: TP1 hit for 30 pips. Stop loss moved to break even and currently enjoying a risk free trade going for TP2.
UPDATE 2: After the release of poor Chinese trade balance data, this pair took a huge fall, even dropping below 0.7600. I got stopped out on my hunt for TP2, but since it was a risk free trade, no harm done. Overall this trade was a winner with TP1 cashed.