Softer Australia GDP growth, rising wedge lure AUDUSD bears

6月5日

AUDUSD picks up bids to consolidate the biggest daily loss in a fortnight early Wednesday even as Australia’s Q1 GDP growth softens to 0.1% QoQ and 1.1% YoY respectively versus 0.3% and 1.6% priors in that order. The Aussie growth numbers also slide beneath market forecasts of 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY. However, prices recover from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), close to 0.6635 at the latest, while posting mild gains within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between 0.6620 and 0.6750. It should be noted that mostly steady RSI conditions and the downbeat MACD signals join the softer Aussie growth to keep sellers hopeful. That said, the bears need validation from the 200-EMA support of 0.6610, in addition to the rising wedge’s bottom line of 0.6620, to retake control. Following that, the pair will be vulnerable to revisit the previous yearly low of 0.6270 while witnessing 0.6460 and the 2024 bottom surrounding 0.6360 as intermediate halts during the run-down to chase a theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation.

Alternatively, the 0.6700 threshold guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair in case of the quote’s further recovery. Should the bulls keep the reins past 0.6700, the yearly high of near 0.6715 and the aforementioned rising wedge’s top line surrounding 0.6750 will challenge the Aussie bulls. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 0.6750, the late 2023 peak around 0.6870 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight.

Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest recovery could be considered a selling opportunity until the quote stays beneath 0.6750.