Neutral ZONE clearly DIVIDED in halves

2012年10月12日

This FX-pair which acts as a risk on/off parameter and has a almost +1 correlation with the Dow Jones Industrial Index (see a weekly chart for this correlation) just entered a neutral zone from the lower end. The last downtrend has taken the price to support at 1.0145 from where it advanced for the last week. It seems that it ran into resistance at 1.0288 which represents half of this neutral zone. The last move (in case it comes back south) should find strong support on the 50% Level shown in bold black. Resistance once we enter the upper half of the neutral zone will be the FiboCluster as shown on this timeframe. My preferred scenario here would be a pullback to the bold black support to see how prices act there and after confirmation of this support I would place a buystop just above the 23.6% Fibo-Retracement (gray thin line). If it happens that the last high from today will be reached again I still would wait till monday morning to see if it holds up there before I enter on the long side. And finally I place a buystop above the FiboCluster. I completely reverse my thinking once the red line at 1.01457 is broken on a daily close.