Aussie Testing Key Support Ahead Of RBA

Aussie is coming down as risk-off moves take place as US yields and USD moves higher across the board on hawkish FED expectations following US NFPs on Friday that rose by 315K in August vs. 300K expected. One of the reasons for lower European shares today is also a suspension of Nord Stream 1 gas flows to Europe, as reported by Russia’s Gazprom (MCX:{{13684|GAZP}}). So for now the USD remains strong, but I am very curious to see which currency can do better than the USD in the next few days. I think that Aussie can be on our watchlist as RBA is expected to be hawkish with a potential 50bp hike on their next meeting. This may help AUDUSD to find some support down here at the 78.6% Fib level where subwave C equals wave A. However, even if price rallies, I do not expect any significant recovery since I think that risk-of flows on stocks will remain in play for a few more weeks. So looking at the Aussie I think there is a chance for a limited rally, into wave E of a triangle as shown on the chart below.

If RBA disappoints then AUD will be very weak in this risk-off flows, especially if the price breaks 2022 low. Then the triangle is already finished with next projection near 0.65.

If you want more analysis then you can also check our video below.
Have a good trading week.
GH