Final T.P hit at 0.7241 - Anyone looking to short now?

2016年5月26日

For those who have been following the Aussie report over the past few days, you may recall that our team placed a pending buy order at 0.7150, which was filled nicely on Tuesday. Partial profits were taken just beneath the 0.72 handle and, thanks to yesterday’s push higher, our position was closed at the final take-profit line – a H4 resistance at 0.7241. Well done to any of our readers who profited from this move!

Pushing forward, here is how we see this market right now:

• Weekly price is bouncing from weekly demand at 0.7108-0.7186, and has the potential to rally back up to retest weekly supply drawn from 0.7438-0.7315.
• Daily action is now seen kissing the underside of a small daily supply area at 0.7259-0.7226.
• The H4 chart shows an AB=CD bearish pattern formed on approach to the above said H4 resistance line. Additional confluence is seen from a converging upper H4 channel resistance taken from the high 0.7402.

Our suggestions: Given the confluence seen on the H4 chart, along with daily supply (see above), we feel a short from the 0.7241 is something to consider today. However, owing to the weekly picture showing demand currently in play (see above) there’s still a risk that, despite the H4 confluence, price could continue to rally higher. Therefore, we would highly recommend only taking a short trade around 0.7241 if you see bearish strength forming on the lower timeframes. For us this would be either a demand engulf and subsequent retest, a trendline break/retest or a collection of selling wicks around either the higher-timeframe level itself or a minor lower-timeframe resistance.