AUD/USD Stuck in a rut (channel)

2018年7月20日

I'm going to admit that I was a bull, but when I opened up the Ideas Updates this morning I saw as many bears as I saw bulls. There are people saying they can see a bull bat, others think they see a bear bat... reminds me of Tweety Bird "I tawt I taw a bat... I diid I diid!".

So that got me thinking... what if I just trash all my analysis & start over... what if we're all correct? What if AUD/UISD is in a channel?

I overlaid a simple retracement and sure enough, there is resistance at the 38% level. It was tested but never broke out. The channel seems to line up nicely.

I think the markets are confused as to what to do & waiting for direction on the Trade War front... so until the next big announcement, this is intraday trader's paradise (I'm not one) who can just trade the channel. Afterwards, it can go either way & who's to say if it's a bull or a bear. I'd just wait for clear sentiment to arise before making a big call Long or Short.

So enjoy the channel for a while... I've seen it with AUD/JPY and AUD/EUR where things get stuck... and just enjoy the ride.

Abit abit abit... that's all folks!

2018年7月24日

注释

2 days after this idea about a flat channel, yesterday a new higher low was formed and today momentum is down. That 38.2% fib level of wave 5 down is proving to be quiet a ceiling.

If the Australian CPI tomorrow comes a tick lower than expectations, then an entrenched bear market will take hold as it becomes clearer that the interest rate differential between the US and Australia will widen.

Then I think this downward channel could fall below wave 5 and we are in a new downward channel. This was already tested on Friday, but economic data can provide the final push outside of the channel.

2018年7月26日

注释

We are still shuffling sideways. Trump has made an agreement to agree to ease trade tensions, putting risk back on.

So is this sideways channel going to finish around 1st 1/3 of August? I can see that fib 50% (0.75) could get restested again based on the latest stochastics.

2018年7月27日

注释

I'm looking at the weekly moving average... confirms that we are in a sideways market. This currency pair is picking mini bulls and bears on a week by week basis. Currently bearish momentum, but the gradient shows no real bias in the current fight between bulls and bears.