Long-term prediction BTC #2
已更新
Another possible scenario for long-term BTC movement.
This is a little different scenario than the first one I have posted (see related ideas), and I believe this may be a more likely outcome as I have made some new observations.
The following details described are highlighted in the green circles on the chart:
1. The 50 MA 1W (blue) and 200 MA 1D (red) has consistently acted as support and resistance.
Whenever we break below, we are pushed down repeatedly in the coming months, especially by the 200 MA 1D. When we finally break above again and the MA's cross, it has signaled the end of the downtrend.
2. The trendlines that has been established during the bull-run's, break down when we correct. They actually do not offer much support at all. This leads me to believe that we will break down from our current trendline.
3. The new trendlines that get's established has decreased their angles by approximately 33%. This could of-course be purely coincidental as well, but it is still a pattern. This could mean it can take a long time before we see new all-time highs.
4. Not so much a pattern, as it has only happened once, but the 200MA 1W (pink) acted as strong support during the 2014 correction when we broke our trendline. This gives us an indication to where we may find support if/when we break down from our trendline once again.
At the time I am writing this the 200MA is at $2636, but it could be around 3k-
4K in a few months.
$3000 or $3800 could make sense as our bottom also when looking at horizontal resistance. Therefore I am calling bottom wherever we may bounce off the 200 MA 1W, which most likely will be in the $3000-$4000 range.
In conclusion: We still have ways to go both downwards and sideways before the tides will turn. Our current downtrend will be over when we have decisively broken through the 200MA 1D and the 50 MA 1W. I predict this may happen next year, possibly after ETF-approval. Still, it could take years before we see new all-time highs. I think this is a good thing. Healthy growth. If BTC wants mainstream approval, the volatility has to decrease.
If we fall through the 200MA 1W I believe $1000 is our next stop. I don't think this will happen. $1000 BTC does not make sense with current overall sentiment and FA.
This is a little different scenario than the first one I have posted (see related ideas), and I believe this may be a more likely outcome as I have made some new observations.
The following details described are highlighted in the green circles on the chart:
1. The 50 MA 1W (blue) and 200 MA 1D (red) has consistently acted as support and resistance.
Whenever we break below, we are pushed down repeatedly in the coming months, especially by the 200 MA 1D. When we finally break above again and the MA's cross, it has signaled the end of the downtrend.
2. The trendlines that has been established during the bull-run's, break down when we correct. They actually do not offer much support at all. This leads me to believe that we will break down from our current trendline.
3. The new trendlines that get's established has decreased their angles by approximately 33%. This could of-course be purely coincidental as well, but it is still a pattern. This could mean it can take a long time before we see new all-time highs.
4. Not so much a pattern, as it has only happened once, but the 200MA 1W (pink) acted as strong support during the 2014 correction when we broke our trendline. This gives us an indication to where we may find support if/when we break down from our trendline once again.
At the time I am writing this the 200MA is at $2636, but it could be around 3k-
4K in a few months. $3000 or $3800 could make sense as our bottom also when looking at horizontal resistance. Therefore I am calling bottom wherever we may bounce off the 200 MA 1W, which most likely will be in the $3000-$4000 range.
In conclusion: We still have ways to go both downwards and sideways before the tides will turn. Our current downtrend will be over when we have decisively broken through the 200MA 1D and the 50 MA 1W. I predict this may happen next year, possibly after ETF-approval. Still, it could take years before we see new all-time highs. I think this is a good thing. Healthy growth. If BTC wants mainstream approval, the volatility has to decrease.
If we fall through the 200MA 1W I believe $1000 is our next stop. I don't think this will happen. $1000 BTC does not make sense with current overall sentiment and FA.
注释
Things are playing out as expected. The trendline broke down and we bounced at the 200 weekly MA. I now expect lateral trading for several months.
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