BTC Bullish and Bearish scenarios
已更新
With the amount of uncertainty of Coronavirus fundamentals moving the market. There is no TA on the planet that can accurately gauge where the market will move next. Here I have taken the 2 most probable scenarios in hopes that you may be able to plan your trades and hedge against volatility.
First we will look at the bearish ABC shown in Red. BTC has currently broken down from its bear flag pattern on the daily chart, and retested the bottom of this pattern on very low volume. Unless some major fundamentals come into play (positive announcement in the press etc) I expect this scenario to play out. This would give us a buy opportunity around the $2500 range. I plan to stack buy orders between $2100 and $2600 for this scenario. If the low happens to dip lower than the 2018 low around $3100, this would invalidate the second bullish scenario, and cause us to re-start our wave count from the new bottom.
Bullish scenario in Green shows a 5 wave impulse move starting from the 2018 low. We have a very complex 2 which would lead to a simple 4 should we break the yellow trend line. If the market breaks up from current levels, I would expect a good push nearing the 2017 highs before quick pullback and test of the top of the yellow line (likely in the 8000-10,000 range). If this scenario proves true, the money I have allotted for the first bearish scenario will be re-alocated to enter the market upon a test of the top of the yellow line (green #4).
Please note: I do not plan on buying Bitcoin at these levels. Bitcoin tends to be the leader, and where it goes, the rest of the market tends to follow. I plan to keep an eye on BTC, and when I see the levels playing out I will be evaluating other coins for entry that have a much higher ROI potential. I will be looking at adding LTC, BCH, NEO, and ETH as my main stacks.. and will add some THETA, PPT, and LINK as secondary positions. Most of the charts in crypto tend to follow BTC movements, so paying attention to what BTC is doing will give me a bit of a warning to start looking at these other coins for potential entry. For now.. We need the leader to lead!
First we will look at the bearish ABC shown in Red. BTC has currently broken down from its bear flag pattern on the daily chart, and retested the bottom of this pattern on very low volume. Unless some major fundamentals come into play (positive announcement in the press etc) I expect this scenario to play out. This would give us a buy opportunity around the $2500 range. I plan to stack buy orders between $2100 and $2600 for this scenario. If the low happens to dip lower than the 2018 low around $3100, this would invalidate the second bullish scenario, and cause us to re-start our wave count from the new bottom.
Bullish scenario in Green shows a 5 wave impulse move starting from the 2018 low. We have a very complex 2 which would lead to a simple 4 should we break the yellow trend line. If the market breaks up from current levels, I would expect a good push nearing the 2017 highs before quick pullback and test of the top of the yellow line (likely in the 8000-10,000 range). If this scenario proves true, the money I have allotted for the first bearish scenario will be re-alocated to enter the market upon a test of the top of the yellow line (green #4).
Please note: I do not plan on buying Bitcoin at these levels. Bitcoin tends to be the leader, and where it goes, the rest of the market tends to follow. I plan to keep an eye on BTC, and when I see the levels playing out I will be evaluating other coins for entry that have a much higher ROI potential. I will be looking at adding LTC, BCH, NEO, and ETH as my main stacks.. and will add some THETA, PPT, and LINK as secondary positions. Most of the charts in crypto tend to follow BTC movements, so paying attention to what BTC is doing will give me a bit of a warning to start looking at these other coins for potential entry. For now.. We need the leader to lead!
注释
I should also note that this is an interim trade. I am still most of my positions bought around $3100. Sold off a bit last year after the summer run, and am looking to put that money back into the market now. I DO NOT recommend going "all-in" on a trade EVER.. Proper asset allocation is CRUCIAL.. This information is meant as a guide line, and should not be considered Investment Advice! DO NOT put money in the market that you can not afford to lose!
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