Bitcoin long term bull scenario: update
We've now seen a couple of tests of the idea layed out here: 
"According to S-curve adoption, tech gets adopted in an S-curve pattern which is exponential at first, linear when it hits the mainstream and then flattens out when full adoption has been achieved.
I follow this reasoning with Bitcoin and while the day to day, week to week, month to month and even year to year movements are too short to see this S-curve pattern, when we look at the full picture of 7 years of Bitcoin price data we can see this S-curve materialising.
What we see in the bitcoin price is a series of declining exponential moves, totally in correspondence with the S-curve adoption. It seems very likely that the bottom for bitcoin is in the neighborhood of today's 3300 USD price. If price holds here, the bottom could be laid for the third multi-year exponential bullrun, less impressive than the former but driving bitcoin price higher than before nonetheless."
"According to S-curve adoption, tech gets adopted in an S-curve pattern which is exponential at first, linear when it hits the mainstream and then flattens out when full adoption has been achieved.
I follow this reasoning with Bitcoin and while the day to day, week to week, month to month and even year to year movements are too short to see this S-curve pattern, when we look at the full picture of 7 years of Bitcoin price data we can see this S-curve materialising.
What we see in the bitcoin price is a series of declining exponential moves, totally in correspondence with the S-curve adoption. It seems very likely that the bottom for bitcoin is in the neighborhood of today's 3300 USD price. If price holds here, the bottom could be laid for the third multi-year exponential bullrun, less impressive than the former but driving bitcoin price higher than before nonetheless."
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