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BNB price analysis, I'm thinking we need to give some back.

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Hey all, Roti here.

Alright guys, after all my efforts I am kicking myself for not sticking with my hunch a week back and buying up BNB to just sit on until it hit 13.45. Seriously, that was my target back then. The opportunity cost of not spending all that time on a mountain somewhere stings :/ Anyway, here's what we've got.

I often find that this is a bearish pattern, this ugly T-rex looking thing. The first red line (13.0119) is the fractal to watch out for, as a break of it is pretty much a loss of the higher low. We're getting lower highs so equilibrium is playing out. I'll call it the equilibriosaurus. That almost sounds legit.

The second red line (12.2114) is the 4h fractal to look out for. Personally I'd like to catch this at about 12.05 but that may be too low of a dip.

On the 15 minute we've nearly got a double top and we're trading outside of the Bollinger Bands. The RSI will get heated here soon. The transparent rectangles are the 15min and 5min fractal ranges I'm looking at immediately.
We should get a decline back to the mid-13.30s, the median of the Bollinger Bands on the 15min.
This is too parabolic for my taste. The RSI is also hot. I expect some equilibrium to set in.

This is a bit overkill and I'm beginning to hate Fibs, but this aligns well with my forecast that we'll see the low-12s again in order to establish a stronger price floor. Notice the second red line indicating a crucial fractal that marks the floor of the uptrend is also on the 61.8% fib zone, while the first one almost correlates with the 78.6% retracement zone. If we use the real candle bodies it'd probably line up perfectly.

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This is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.

交易结束：到达目标

Well call me Houdini, that's just too accurate ;)

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Red is support and resistance zone

Bottom zone is crucial for bulls to maintain longer term higher lows and the uptrend. The average velocity of these rallies indicate we'll flag in the zone between the red lines above and the real body of the bull fractal holding the resistance zone up. Sorry folks, too busy at the moment to conveniently write in the prices.

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Here's your maddening treasure map of BNBUSDT for the week. It's a lot of scaffolding but I wanted to show you guys what I'm working with. It's easier to read without the fibs but important to know how these levels are lining up and how they are breaking down due to changes in velocity and the impact of Bitcoin. Massive amounts of "If" here, but I swear it looks like a pattern. Red lines indicate support and resistance levels. As you can see, I think we're leaning toward more downside.

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Here is with a little scaffolding taken off, you can see more clearly that we may get more downside. This strange scimitar thing will appear on the other side with a lower high, like a head and shoulders pattern. This will be more likely to happen if we establish a higher low on this pullback and consolidation. Otherwise a break of the head and shoulders pattern will indicade a stronger dump to the bottom of the first scimitar, again for lack of better word. Until we have that breakdown, we've got a bullish cup and handle forming with the current dip being the handle, though I've often seen these break down before. Be on watch for places to tighten your stops as we develop into the dip/ consolidation.

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So far this crude projection has been accurate, I'm surprised at how we hit the top of that little spike in price so accurately, and now it's steadily downtrending. If RSI cools off long enough and BTC heads to 6000, BNB should also lose USD value despite being strong against BTC. Notice the Ichimoku is threatening to flip bearish.

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Keep in mind we have a slightly bullish flag forming here where we may snap back tp the kijun on the 1h, but the odds are weighing against that.

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We're off the trail as far as this far-out forecast goes, and that's to be expected as we get a little more information each hour that passes. We are also correlating less with BTC lately. I'm going to remove the projection as I think while history will rhyme, the ugly lime mountain is no longer in play.

Looking closer on the 1h timeframe, there's a lot of kumo to clear. I think the cloud will have to dissipate a bit as right now it's too choppy to call for an edge-to-edge cloud break. There may be a random spike to about 12.6 like we had a few times earlier. We are trading in the channel which I predicted properly a few days ago, between 12.6 and 12.16 and we may finally get that temporary drop to the 11's.

Refer to the photo below. Despite being above a bullish kumo on the 4h, I see some dissipation and it is not uptrending, therefore we may see a twist in the future, especially if BTC and the markets as a whole have another downturn. It's not quite the best time for any bottom-fishing plays in BNB. On both the 1h and 4h timeframe we are not far from the kijun, though we may pull back to the kijun on the 4h as it's most extended there and riding quite close on the 1h. That to me means the market is accepting lower levels for now and is considering downward pressure.

On all significant timeframes, RSI is cooled off. One thing I will point out is that the Bollinger Bands are squeezing real tight as we are in a tight equilibrium range right now, so you may get a clear indication of price direction and can set alerts around the edges of the Bollinger Bands now. See below.

You can set a rectangle tool as follows (see below), with the tips touching the opposing most recent fractal up and fractal down, with a second rectangle on the second fractal down as a significant stop loss area if you're going long. You can play this as a breakout in either direction though personally I see an inside bar bear break as we speak on the 4h with little follow-through but a bit of a spinning top doji. That indicates indecision, which is a strike against the bears. This is really tight, guys. If you're using a platform that allows you to open stop orders on both sides of this range, you're in luck. Binance and Bittrex don't allow for it, nor do they allow for margin. You may be able to pull this off on Kraken or Bitfinex but I'm not certain.

All the best everyone, have a great weekend. Apologies for cancelling the "Watchlist Daily Update". I plan to continue those in the future, as people were actually watching them and that sort of floored me. You guys are great! As always, there's a conversation going on over on the Discord channel which I'll post a link to in my status update (the only place where we can do so, as per the house rules) and I will respond to any direct Roti messages as fast as possible ;)

Much love, Roti out.

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This has been for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice.