BTCCNY: Update

2016年9月16日

Bitcoin's uptrend came to a halt recently, and we've now failed to hit the required level above on time.
I'd expect either a triangle or downtrend continuation here, but not a move to the upside.
The Bitcoin ETF, GBTC also shows heavy selling, so it might anticipate further downside in BTCCNY, at least until GBTC gets oversold.

If long from lower levels, and for the long term, you can wait and buy dips, if long from around these parts it'd be better to stand aside, or be short for now.
Risk is a rally to 4153+, so size your trades accordingly.
If this is indeed a triangle weaving, shorts aren't too productive and they sit there eating interest for being held, so, again, caution is advised.
Let's reasess after we either drop during the weekend, or break back above 4069.39.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

2016年9月19日

交易手动结束

Failure to proceed to the downside and USDCNH rallying once more suggests we can rejoin the long side after a small loss with the short. So, we're back at square one (previous publication: "Accumulation setup")

2016年9月24日

注释

We can flip long, or wait to short higher. There are signs of distribution in the background.

2016年10月1日

注释

If you were short here when I posted, you landed on a move down to 3890 before being able to flip long.