BTCUSD: Not Looking Good in the 1-Month Time Frame - Explained

已更新

Hi Everyone! We have a new 1-Month candle and it's not looking good. The B-Bands are different this Distribution (bear) period compared to previous Distribution periods. How so? The B-Bands would begin rising up from a very low level (contracting) once Distribution began and would find support around the White Lower B-Band in the 1-Month time frame.

Well, the B-Bands are much tighter in the 1-Month compared to previous Bull/Bear Cycles due to lower volume in Bitcoin Trading compared to the previous cycles. This is in large part due to more people in the crypto space HODLING crypto for long periods of time; resulting in less crypto on exchanges to be traded.

When lower volume causes the B-Bands to become tighter during a bull and bear cycle in higher time frames, we now have an oppotunity to see EXPANSION DOWN of the B-Bands rather than CONTRACTION DOWN as in previous Distribution (bear) cycles.

We have an opportunity for EXPANSION DOWN potentially beginning some time during this 1-Month Candle or in the next 1-Month Candle. We would need to monitor lower time frames to determine if and/or when this potential expansion down can begin.

Will we see significant expansion down in this 1-Month time frame? No, I don't believe so. At least not this Distribution (bear) Cycle. However, we can anticipate the Lower B-Bands in the 1-Month not to fall as much the next Accumulation (bull) Cycle as in previous Accumulation Cycles. This is mainly due to less trading volume of Bitcoin on the exchanges.

Maybe your argument is Bitstamp does not have a lot of trading volume like Binance Global and other exchanges. Well, my argument is to simply have a look at the chart using my indicators and see for yourself.

Look at Binance 1-Month chart here and you will see similar structure in the B-Bands as we do on Bitstamp. My argument is we have more exchanges for trading than ever before with less coins per exchange than we would have seen with far less crypto exchanges. So, the result will be the same across the board with the structure of the B-Bands.

1-Month Time Frame - Binance Chart:

1-Month Time Frame - Bitstamp Chart:

BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:

Our Blue LSMA is approaching Yellow Level 50 while
the Red Line hovers just above White Level 30. This
is looking even more like we could continue falling
further to potentially within proximity to the Orange
Lower B-Band in this 2-Month time frame.

GRAY TEXT BUBBBLE:

White Energy is not even turning up yet. We have a
similar situation here to what we saw in the 1-Month
Candle beginning 01 Nov 2018.

PURPLE TEXT BUBBLE:

Blue Line approaching Level 50 [Like present day].
Red Line approaching Level 30 [Like present day].

I will follow up with more charts to this publication here and there over the course of the next 24-hours.

Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!

David

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UPDATE:

We want to see what the next 12-hour, 24-hour, 2-Day and 3-Day candles look like when they begin. Why is this important? What are we looking for?

The next 2-Day candle begins in approximately 16 hours from this writing. We want to see if the White Energy (momentum) continues falling further below level 50 down to level 30 and lower. We want to see if the Red and Blue Lines remain under level 30 and turn back down. If so, this can result in more expansion down in the next 2-Day candle.

The next 3-Day candle begins in approximately 1-Day and 16-hours from this writing. We want to see if the White Energy can fall back below Yellow Level 50. We want to see if the Green Line comes down; allowing the Red and Blue Lines to make contact with the Green Line while it comes down; indicating downward pressure is likely to follow.

The next 12-hour candle begins in approximately 4-hours from this writing. Will we see the formation of a Death Triangle? My premium followers know what I'm talking about. If we do see a Death Triangle in the 12-hour, we can see either more sideways action or more downward movement again eventually. Why do I say eventually? Because we need TIME for the Daily to also play out because we may also have a Death Triangle in the 24-hour time frame.

How would we determine if we are subject to see a Death Triangle in the 12-hour; followed by a potential Death Triangle in the 24-hour? Well, we would need to monitor the Short Term Group of time frames. (30-min. 60-min. 90-min. 2-hr. 3-hr. 4-hr. 6-hr. & 8-hr.)

All I will say about the Short Term Group is the 6-Hour is not looking very good at present for the bulls. Can this change? Maybe... Depends on what occurs in lower time frames.

Here is the 6-hour:

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UPDATE:

REMINDER: The 25-Day (Bottom Left Corner) began approximately 6.5 days ago. When its Red and Blue Lines fell below White Level 30, this created conditions for the B-Bands to go through Stage 2-Expansion; encouraging price action to fall DOWN with this expansion.

We have a NEW 26-Day candle (Bottom Left of Center) beginning in approximately 16 hours from this writing. You can see the Red and Blue Lines are both on the verge of falling below White Level 30 the NEXT 26-Day candle. So, just as we had increased odds for expansion down for the 25-Day, we can have a similar situation for the next 26-Day candle; resulting in Stage 2 Expansion of the B-Bands and price action falling DOWN with this expansion.

We can get Stage 1 Expansion of the B-Bands when both the Red and Blue Lines fall below Yellow Level 50. As you can see, the 27-Day (Bottom Right of Center) and 4-Week (Bottom Right Corner) are still working on their Stage 1 expansion down. Will the 27-Day potentially begin Stage 2 Expansion Down the NEXT 27-Day candle beginning approximately 7-Days and 16-hours from this writing? We'll see... We need both the Red and Blue Lines to fall below White Level 30 the next 27-Day candle. Don't forget the 1-Month time frame. As you can tell, we still have plenty of time for Downward pressure to continuing doing its thing with the price action. Which is sideways at best or downward at worst if you are in a long position.

Here's the Macro Group of time frames which include the 25-Day, 26-Day and 27-Day just discussed in the previous paragraph.

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UPDATE:

Simply taking a moment to post these charts for FUTURE REFRENCE:

Mid Term/Long Term View of Distribution:

Short Term/Near Term View of Distribution:

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UPDATE:

Changed the first "Test" on previous chart to "ST" (Second Test) in Phase A of POTENTIAL Accumulation. I'm still leaning toward continued Distribution but we'll see.

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UPDATE:

2-Week Time Frame:

RED TEXT BUBBLE: Red Line has never been this low in the 2-Week Time Frame.
We have 13-Days & 23-Hours remaining.

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UPDATE:

BTCUSD - REMINDER posted from a previous TradingView publication about "invalidating continued distribution."

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UPDATE:

Green Line in the 5-Day was previously angled downward. It has now turned upward and the Red Line is trying to turn up in the 5-Day. We have 2-Days and 4-Hours remaining in the current 5-Day candle:

Close-Up of 5-Day:

Entire Near Term Group:

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UPDATE:

When applying Wyckoff Method 2.0 to Short and Near Term using the 12-hour time frame; we are either in a Simple Rally event in Phase B of Accumulation or an Up-Thrust/Last Point of Supply event for Distribution. We won't know which until we get a pullback and see how much we pull back to.

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UPDATE:

IMPORTANT info regarding the 2-Week time frame:

I removed the White Energy and Green Line from this 2-Week chart. Now, all you see is the Red Line, Blue Line and Stochastic RSI.

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UPDATE:

We need this Blue Line to REMAIN
above Level 20. If the Blue Line
falls below Level 20 in the 2-Week,
we could see DISTRIBUTION continue
for a longer period of time.

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UPDATE:

Added additional text bubble regarding K & D lines of Stochastic RSI first needing to rise above level 20 and continue thereafter above level 30 to increase odds of a "transition" from Distribution to Accumulation. Analytics is all about using quality indicators to determine the "odds" of particular events occurring.

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UPDATE:

1-Month Time Frame:

BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:

Red Line is already below White Level 30. The Blue Line is currently at Level 32.1.
This could spell bad news for another leg down. Meaning, we have high odds of
seeing a "Sign of Weakness" in Phase E event soon.

In history, the Green Line rising up and/or the Yellow K-Line rising above level 10
would manage to save the day. We could go to lower time frames than the this
1-Month time frame to see what was responsible for the Yellow K-Line rising above
level 10 in the 1-Month during those periods in history. We are currently watching
lower time frames than the 1-Month. Example: I've pointed out the Weekly tme
frame several times in the past couple of video publications. The Red and Blue Lines
in the Weekly are BOTH below white level 30 at this writing.

This time may be different than historical behavior. We are actually seeing the market
go DOWN "with" EXPANSION of the B-Bands in the 1-Month for the very first time.
Historically, this has been opposite in the 1-Month. You can see the B-Bands were
CONTRACTING while the market was going down when looking at historical price and
B-Band behavior.

We have a new 1-Month candle in 9-Days. Brace yourself... It's going to get volatile.

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UPDATE:

Here is the 1-Month time frame: