BTC: Seventh wave peak at end of May? Update

已更新

*** Please see the previous iteration of this chart for the full explanation.

I'm updating this to add in the macro channel, amended from a previous chart, relevant to this movement, if the upside movement continues.

Looking at February, there are two ways to project price action based on that comparison. I'll link screenshots below.

1) Scenario 1. This scenario places the 0.702 of the initial downside impulse on the liquidation wick. This approach may suggest one more leg down, to around 46k, from where price currently is.

The channel in the chart here is based on this scenario.

2) Scenario 2. The other approach is to ignore the liquidation wick and place the 0.702 on the buy back candle.

This approach would suggest the base is already in.

But looking at the market as a whole, I think there is further downside potential here.

A move by BTC below 46k would potentially invalidate this whole analysis and macro projection, and may signal a mini bear market within the larger bull market.

Feel free to comment.

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Scenario 1:

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Scenario 2:

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23 Apr 2021 12:38:22: I'm playing this conservatively by giving allowance for a further leg down. There were obviously liquidations in February, too. But currently I do believe we're talking of the base of a corrective wave, rather than BTC stepping down into a bear market. We'll have to see if this correct or invalidated. From the charts, anywhere on or below 43k I think necessitates a rethink.

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23 Apr 2021 16:12:04: The lack of strength of the bounce in the last 5-6 hours is concerning. Again, comparing to February, and operating on the assumption that scenario 1 above is how we should be looking at it, from a Fibonacci perspective, BTC should be bouncing to 51. Instead, it's still in the 49.3 area. This might suggest that we're not simply retracing or correcting, but that this is the beginning of a prolonged downtrend.

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Comment: 23 Apr 2021 17:13:03: Last time BTC wicked into the 100 EMA was in October. Many people naturally look to the next level down, the 200 EMA. The last time that was tapped was in February 2020, followed soon after by a break of the 200 EMA and a 55% drop, in March 2020. That said, absent a stock market crash, I don't see that repeating now. However, we cannot rule out a panic-based sell off, especially among retailers.

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23 Apr 2021 17:58:50: Right or wrong, I remember: when you feel fear, it's probably close to the time to buy. My bet is with the Fibonacci levels. They are not hard floors. Price can bleed over and bounce along them. But I see the 2.618 Fibonacci level as the most significant thing currently on the BTC chart.