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BTCUSD: Wave One of renewed uptrend

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2024-04-02 BTCUSD

Corrections occur after the market has finished waves one, three, and five of an uptrend. There are no other reasons for corrections, save for black-swan events which happen outside the rhythm of the market and usually cause crashes.

On March 4, 2024 the bitcoin market completed a sequence of five waves from the end of the January correction at 38500. This required a correction, which promptly ensued in a minor fashion before achieving a new all-time high. But quickly the exuberance of traders demanding a new ATH prevailed and the market obliged permitting prices to advance in a choppy manner, producing an irregular market top on March 14, in the second leg of the correction. Then the rubber band snapped, and the market plunged in the third corrective wave to the 60 k level. End of correction by the support from the 200 SMA on the 4H scale, as well as major channel fib lines.

After every correction, a new uptrend emerges. This starts with printing a new wave sequence, which starts with wave one. And this is exactly the behavior we see in bitcoin. Wave one and wave two of this new uptrend are complete.

The market will now continue its ascend to new highs in wave three.

All this talk about pre-halving corrections is nonsense. This idea is a stupid myth.
Markets do not correct from myths or events, other than forced rug-pulls like COVID did, or the FTX collapse.

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Here is a view of the larger context since the lows of January

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Just ride the waves. See you at the top. The top is a lonely place, no crowding there.

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First target estimate for the third wave is in the range 78.5 to 80.7 k. Other targets exist, but let’s get going first to verify.

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A lot of traders are currently expecting this market to go lower, to extend the correction of March.
But they are too much focused on the short term, blind to the larger picture.

The larger picture is that this market is a highly trending market with very strong long-term chart features providing support and resistance.

One such trend line is the line in bold red in the following chart. This is a Fibonacci channel line that has been a backbone of this market since last Fall. Its strength and dominance has been remarkable, it has curtailed the March correction, as well as the current wave two, as it has provided a cap on pricing last year.

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It is a great example of resistance flipped into support.

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Before departing the trend line area upwardly, bitcoin retested its backbone once more, and was solidly rejected once again. I take that as a reconfirmation of the wave assignment as well, which can be seen in the following detail chart. I am focused here more on wave one, Minute degree ((i)), that is circled, rather than the correction ((ii)).
A reasonable extension of wave one for the size of wave three, ((iii)), is the 1.618 Fibonacci level at about 81100 dollars, which should be in our visors for this move up. I would not be surprised if this happens in a very rapid fashion, in fact, I rather expect that, giving that the market has simmered in a narrow range for some time now.

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In this I have purposely not placed assignments for wave ((ii)), because my first assignments were wrong at the top, and then I was not sure about the structures at the bottom. The transitions from bearish to bullish can be difficult to decide. We also have the rising trend line which makes it quite possible that the correction end is not the lowest price. In fact, I am still not sure where the little wave at the bottom belongs.

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I believe it should be characterized as a leading diagonal in wave ((iii)), to kick off the April bull.

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The market is responding nicely and positively now. I think it is likely that it is leaving this trend line area for good, and that prices below 70 k will never be seen again in the bitcoin market.

This is a cheap area of entry still for those who slept at 19 k, 28 k, 31 k, 38 k, 52 k. The area of the 2021 ATH will serve as a strong support zone in the future, as it was faught about so hard in March of 2024.

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The 200 SMA on the 4 hour chart is a critical indicator for bitcoin’s direction. It has been the key support/resistance line in this entire cycle. Check it out!

So, this market is just now in the process of recapturing this line. Once on top, it stays on top for extended periods.