BTC 2023: 2014 drop before starting a new run?

Just comparing a bit with 2014.

Highlighted yellow circle area is open to interpretation depending on whether which dark blue trendlines full or dashed is more likely to resemble 2014 white line.

Based on that, the target area of a 2014-like drop be the light blue rectangle.

评论:

on track. next area of interest is a support around 17.8k, if we break through this, which is likely given current macro-environment (silvergate, ...), we can go down to 15.5 or even 12k (worst case). We could be making a lower low (comapred to 2022 lows) in the grand scheme of things - at a point where 2014 made a higher low (the 2nd spike down).
But even IF we go all the way to 12k for a lower low, I'd see it as a retrack followed by a continuation. On the chart it will look like a retest of the blue line. In the RSI it should then also be a retest of the upper line.
THAT would be what I call a healthy sign looking forward tbh - as long as regulators or macro-economic factors don't f*** us up.