BTC Falling out of 5th Wave?

2021年3月16日

Hello BTC friends! I am new to TA but would like to share with you a potential outcome that I am seeing. Let me know your thoughts so we can all learn!

From my perspective there are multiple reasons why BTC looks like it will fall in price:

1) BTC completed the 5th wave on 3/14/21 and is now in the correction phase.
2) BTC failed to reach the top of the downtrend line (resistance channel line) on wave 5. When this happens there is a potential for the price to break the uptrend line( support channel line).
3) BTC did not break out from on wave 5 with as much volume as was seen with breakouts from waves 0 - 1 and 2 - 3.
4) RSI values are dropping with each upward impulse. Wave 1: RSI = 89.2, Wave 3: RSI = 79.95, Wave 5: RSI = 72.73
5) The MACD line is about to cross the Signal line moving downwards.

I believe the 5 reasons above support my bearish perspective. I am not sure if the correction waves present an accurate picture but I drew the last correction wave as breaking the uptrend line since BTC was not able to hit the top of the downtrend line. I also have the final wave fall down to 42K where we have strong support.

Let me know your thoughts and correct me where possible. Good luck!