BTCUSD: When Will It Break? Know Your Environment.

2018年10月28日

Bitcoin update: This market has been stuck around the 6400 level for about 10 days. We can sit here and go back and forth about what this means about the near future and why (along with 10 charts from gurus seeking attention). Or we can learn a very important lesson about market timing.

Many years ago when I was a NASDAQ day trader, the experienced traders used to tell us: only trade what is in play. If the market is making new highs and your stock is going no where, find another stock. The same goes for timing Bitcoin.

The difference is the WHOLE space is out of play. Besides long term positioning, the only traders ignorant enough to force trades are those who made some money during the bull run. They haven't shaken off the bad habits that they acquired during the "easy money" from a year ago. They will either learn, wipe out their account, or both.

We have a swing trade long that we entered 9 days ago. Besides that we have been waiting for an outcome. I get criticized a lot for reiterating the importance of "waiting" which is to be expected from a market where the lack of emotional intelligence is the highest.

The other tactic that we are employing is the extreme buy. This is where we have an order way under the market, and IF there is another "massive sell off" we will buy into it. Carefully. The 6K area or slightly below is where we anticipate such a scenario to unfold.

The lesson here is less about patience and more about KNOWING YOUR ENVIRONMENT. Why would you go fishing in the middle of a desert? Have you seen the stock market? Tons of opportunities on all time frames. That is where the money is flowing at the moment.

We may not be actively trading Bitcoin, but we do expect it to return to the spot light. Consolidations break out and the longer it consolidates, the more dramatic the break out. That is the time to be more active and look for continuation patterns, not now.

The structure that continues to unfold is still bullish. And it is in line with our long term perspective. UNTIL that changes, we will look for longs, even if our current position is stopped out. A close above 6500 (Coinbase) is the confirmation we are waiting for. Will it happen this week? Ask one of the chart gurus in the comment section, maybe they know.

This price action has insitutional activity written all over it. This is the result of all the hedge fund money entering the market, NOT BTC 30K. Smart money doesn't buy high, they buy low and use what ever power they have to make that happen. They have the freedom to do or buy whoever they want in this space.

In summary, this is a professional's market and the only ones who are going to benefit are the ones who understand how this game is played. It has nothing to do with charts, the RSI or news drama. As a member of the herd, you help to provide liquidity for the long term positioning of the smart money.

The only way to avoid this is to take control OVER your own behavior, stop reacting and learn how to WAIT for the market to reveal its hand. It is unpopular and no fun, and certainly not the lottery ticket mindset, but that is the reality of best practices.

2018年11月2日

注释

Bitcoin update: Besides another bearish fake (surprise, surprise), nothing has changed since I wrote this report days earlier. Price is working it ways higher, slowly but this is nothing to get excited about. In order for momentum to assert itself, a significant break needs to take place, one way or the other. That means price needs to close below 6K or 6500. I am starting to see a gradual shift in sentiment toward the bullish side. As a contrarian, I take this as a sign that we are likely to test lower for one more shake out, which we will look to accumulate more inventory. Keep in mind the reports I share on here are geared more toward swing trades which is a separate strategy. That is where we are on the side lines, while we carry long term inventory. We keep our strategies separate.