Just looking at the historical chart, seems to be a clear correlation between the end of the corrections and the last 2 halvings.
1ST BIG RALLY FROM SUB 1$ TO 30$, AND FIRST HALVING
2ND BIG RALLY TO 1100$, AND SECOND HALVING
3RD BIG RALLY AND THE ACTUAL ONE
the first chart shows how bitcoin, after correcting the rise to 30$, exceeds the last falling wave, indicative of a mayor trend reversal, but is just once the halving happens when it clearly exceeds and a new rally begins. In the case of the big rise to the 1100$ in 2013, there is an identical pattern, exceeds the last descending wave after the correction to 150$, and a new rally starts once the halving happens.
If this happens again due to the fractality of the markets, I expect a last big fall to the 4.5-3.5k$ area, a phase of accumulation in 3-5k range for months with low volume/volatility, marketmakers will bore everyone as much as they can, and once the acumulation is over, a big rise should happen to the maximum of the last descending wave at 12k, probably at the end of winter 2020, and after the halving on May 25, 2020, the start of the new rally that will take us to new all time highs.
1ST BIG RALLY FROM SUB 1$ TO 30$, AND FIRST HALVING
2ND BIG RALLY TO 1100$, AND SECOND HALVING
3RD BIG RALLY AND THE ACTUAL ONE
the first chart shows how bitcoin, after correcting the rise to 30$, exceeds the last falling wave, indicative of a mayor trend reversal, but is just once the halving happens when it clearly exceeds and a new rally begins. In the case of the big rise to the 1100$ in 2013, there is an identical pattern, exceeds the last descending wave after the correction to 150$, and a new rally starts once the halving happens.
If this happens again due to the fractality of the markets, I expect a last big fall to the 4.5-3.5k$ area, a phase of accumulation in 3-5k range for months with low volume/volatility, marketmakers will bore everyone as much as they can, and once the acumulation is over, a big rise should happen to the maximum of the last descending wave at 12k, probably at the end of winter 2020, and after the halving on May 25, 2020, the start of the new rally that will take us to new all time highs.
评论:
Trade still active, definitely looks like floor Will be around 4.5K. So we could se the capitulation start in the upcoming days.
交易开始:
Much longer than expected, but finally raiding year lows.
-Once crossing the previous ATH until reaching the new one, 36 and 39 weeks have passed in both cicles.
2.-There is a symmetry from the minimum to the maximum of each cycle. There is approx. the same distance from the minimum to the halving, than from the halving to the next ATH.
So with all this, we wouldn't see a new ATh till 2021, probably between feb and jul 2021